2023 NHL Mock Draft: March Edition
No great debate for No. 1 , but star power available deep into Round 1
We still don’t know. We’re four days from St. Patrick’s Day and nobody knows. People are dreaming, yes. Fantasizing, in some cases. Maybe even resorting to an attic ritual involving candles, a signed 8 x 10 headshot of Olli Jokinen, and a game-used FoxTrax. A broken shutter breaks a nervous silence by smacking against a half-open window. They want Connor Bedard. Everyone wants Connor Bedard. Who cares about anyone else?
Oh, but care you should, and in a big way. Division winners? First-round knockouts? Conference finalists? You’re all invited as long as you weren’t greedy at the trade deadline like Augustus Gloop in the Chocolate Factory. Everyone else is invited, but only the first fourteen guests get a shot at Bedard. Sometime in April, they’ll be the VIP’s at an exclusive gathering near the Jersey swamps, not too far from where Clemenza left the gun and took the cannolis. It’s where NHL commissioner Gary Bettman organizes an entire legion of his best troops to execute the most anticipated draft lottery since the Sidney Crosby sweepstakes in 2005. Wait, what about Connor McDavid in 2015? Nope. Not the same. This is different. It feels different. Bedard might be better than both.
The 2023 NHL draft is supposed to be special, but not only because of Bedard. It’s deep, and at least five prospects at the top — Bedard included — who would have been a consensus No. 1 or challenged for the top spot in every draft since McDavid in 2015. That’s why you don’t want to miss this once-every-two-decades event, because everyone invited will go home with something. Who cares if some end up with more than others? Even outside the first round, game-changers abound. Fans of bad teams are told every draft that it’s a good year to suck. In 2023, it’s a good year for everyone.
BIG BOARD: Midseason ranking of the Top-32 for the 2023 NHL draft
This isn’t an attempt to be cheesy either. That’s the best part. There’s no exaggerating the strength of the 2023 draft class. Fans are excited. Scouts are excited. The city of Nashville is excited, because they get to host the party, and rumor has it they’re pretty good at it. All 32 teams knew who Connor Bedard was years before, so they’ve had time to prep. Maybe they dabbled in a little fantasizing themselves. Then along came Matvei Michkov. Then Adam Fantilli. Then Leo Carlsson and Brayden Yager, Quinten Musty and Eduard Sale. Now this David Reinbacher kid shows up, and he’s already got people calling him a full-time NHL defenseman as early as October. Franchise goalies? Check. First-round talent as late as Round 3? Double check.
Of course, the party won’t be fun for everyone once the music stops. Some teams might botch this, just like the Quebec Nordiques in 1988, or the Rangers in 2003, or the Boston Bruins in 2015. Nobody likes to fail at a specified task, especially if months of planning were exhausted trying to nail it down. The double whammy is being bad in the regular season and making bad draft picks three months later. It happens. Nine NHL teams flatlined with over month left in the regular season. They’ve already been invited to Bettman’s Jersey Swamp soiree in April, with five more available until the end of the regular season. Pray for those GMs to not mess this up. Maybe we can help with a mock draft.
Setting up the mock draft
The old method of determining a mock draft’s order for an ongoing regular season was ongoing was simply to rank teams in inverse order of points percentage based off the standings of the day you decided to make a mock draft. But times have changed for the better, and the creation of the invaluable Tankathon draft-lottery simulator coupled with the NHL’s new lottery rules make the easiest part of the project feel realistic. Thing is, the first lottery spin offered no change to the draft order, which is reflected in the draft order below.
It also is imperative to once again clarify the movement of first-round draft picks that began two offseasons ago and reached a crescendo around the NHL’s recent trade deadline:
Ottawa dealt its 2023 first-round pick (top-5 protected) to Arizona as part of the Jakob Chychrun deal.
Florida sent its 2023 first-round pick to Montreal as part of the Ben Chiarot trade.
The Islanders traded their 2023 first-round pick (top-12 protected) to Vancouver as part of the Bo Horvat deal. The Canucks then shipped that pick to Detroit in a package for Filip Hronek.
Edmonton traded it’s 2023 first-round pick to Nashville as part of the Mattias Ekholm deal.
Toronto traded its original 2023 first-round selection to St. Louis as part of the Ryan O’Reilly deal.
Boston’s 2023 first-round pick belongs to Toronto Maple Leafs via Washington in the trade that sent Rasmus Sandin to the Capitals for Erik Gustafsson. Washington previously traded for the Bruins’ 2023 first-rounder as part of a package for Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway.
2023 Mock Draft
1. Columbus Blue Jackets
Connor Bedard, C (Regina Pats, WHL)
With Bedard, every shift has a chance to be a highlight and the opposition can do nothing about it. He’s overcome every obstacle thrown his way — zone defenses, shadowing, physical punishment — with stunning composure, and his 125 points in 51 games puts him at a pre-2000s scoring pace. The NHL will be Bedard’s biggest challenge to date, and the Jackets are dead last for many reasons. But counting against him isn’t recommended. He comes to play every night.
Bottom line: Deep into the future, nobody should care to mention how bad Columbus needed to be to receive the best shot at a potential earth-shatterer (yes Dwight, it’s true). So let’s all admit that if this years-long Bedard fantasy becomes a reality for the Blue Jackets (or any team for that matter), everything that happened leading up to the draft — literally everything — becomes nothing but a few footnotes. Beyond that, we could be witnessing the beginning of an entirely new chapter in hockey history. One of those good chapters.
2. San Jose Sharks
Adam Fantilli, C (Michigan, Big-10)
The Sharks haven’t owned a top-two pick since taking Patrick Marleau second overall in 1997, which in turn kickstarted a successful era of Bay Area hockey that lasted nearly two decades. Those days may be long gone, however, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that Fantilli — college hockey’s scoring leader with a ridiculous 1.81 points-per-game average — can instantly brighten the mood around San Jose much like Marleau 26 years earlier. It also doesn’t hurt that Fantilli has the size and strength combination to augment his plus-plus puck skill, which he’ll certainly be counted on to display as the centerpiece of a growing collection of young stars who will be tasked with rescuing the franchise from its darkest period.
Bottom line: If there’s one team which has no time to wait for Matvei Michkov, it’s the San Jose Sharks. Not only can they argue that Fantilli is the more complete player who immediately addresses the pipeline’s top-heavy center depth, but that the excitement he brings will in itself make the Sharks more interesting to watch.
3. Chicago Blackhawks
Matvei Michkov, RW (HK Sochi, KHL)
Everyone appears to be on board with the direction the rebuilding Blackhawks are heading in, even if that includes another last-place finish and the franchise’s worst points percentage in 19 years. Michkov already has an air of greatness surrounding him, and his instant dynamism and catalog of goal-scoring moves are unmatched by any teenage hockey player not named Connor Bedard. And although the Windy City will be well outside of Michkov’s sphere of influence for the foreseeable future, the Hawks — armed with 11 picks in 2023 — can select from a growing list of hopefuls who are exciting enough to keep their loyalists placated until Michkov commits to the NHL.
Bottom line: Drafting a prolific sniper like Michkov will make riskier picks like Kirby Dach in 2019 a distant memory, and the Hawks can allow Michkov to continue his assault on Russian hockey’s record books until the ripe age of 21, when his KHL contract expires after the 2025-26 season. For what it’s worth, the Blackhawks have a history of drafting Russians while under Wirtz ownership and struck gold with the signing of Artemi Panarin.
4. Anaheim Ducks
Leo Carlsson, C/LW (Orebro, SHL)
Carlsson is another NHL-ready specimen with an advanced IQ who exceeded expectations in his first full SHL season and has a reputation for being difficult to play against. His numbers help prove that, as his 10 goals and 25 points in his first 44 games as an SHL rookie rank Carlsson among the most prolific draft-year producers in league history. It’s definitely worth monitoring Carlsson’s tardiness issue that went public less two months after Central Scouting ranked him ahead of Michkov., but Carlsson’s size-skill combination is well worth the risk and his addition to Anaheim’s overflowing prospect pool should intensify competition among Ducks’ neophytes even further.
Bottom line: It was not a fun season in Anaheim, so the least the Ducks can do for their rooters is stick to the edict of drafting the best player available. You also can bet the farm they won’t be taking a defenseman this high, as they already own two of the best defense prospects in the game and the 2023 crop doesn’t have a single blueline prospect remotely worthy of a top-four slot.
5. Arizona Coyotes
Zachary Benson, LW (Winnipeg Ice, WHL)
The Coyotes desperately need a potential No. 1 defenseman now that Jakob Chychrun is gone, so the possibility exists that they leave nothing to chance and draft for need with the No. 5 pick (David Reinbacher?) over the clear-cut best player available, which Benson has rightfully earned. He’s almost up there with Connor Bedard as one of the most talented and driven WHL draft prospects we’ve seen in recent memory, and his dynamism and willing to take a beating in the process makes him the perfect compliment for a playmaker like Logan Cooley or Winnipeg Ice teammate Conor Geekie.
Bottom line: The Coyotes upped the effort level this season to earn more points than expected and essentially reduce their chances to land one of the “Big Four” forwards at the top of this year's draft class. If Arizona wants the next best thing, they draft Benson.
6. Montreal Canadiens
Eduard Sale, LW (Kometa Brno, Extraliga)
We’ve seen enough glimpses of just how dominant an offensive force Sale can be. He’s ripped apart international competition (21 points in 18 games combined in his three toughest tournaments), and recently notched a hat trick as an 18-year-old rookie for a playoff team in the Czech Republic’s top circuit. Sale can play either wing and is a dangerous passing threat from distance. The Canadiens are loaded at practically every skater position so it’s doubtful they pass up on any of the creative puck wizards and finishers who will be available in this slot.
Bottom line: It would be folly for the Canadiens to draft another center, especially when you consider the top tier will be gone by the sixth pick. Sale is a grizzled 29-year-old veteran trapped in a teenager’s body, which means he should be a fit for a front office that pushed AHL-level prospects into the Habs’ lineup throughout the season. Sale’s exposure to physical, north-south hockey in the rough-and-tumble Czech Extraliga could land him in Laval or Montreal as early as next season.
7. Philadelphia Flyers
Will Smith, C (U.S. U18, NTDP)
Centering the top line for the under-18 NTDP’s during a draft season has been a stepping stone for a growing list of NHL stars — Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Clayton Keller, Josh Norris, and Jack Hughes all earned the privilege during the 2010’s, and Smith — a Boston College recruit like 2022 Flyers’ first-rounder Cutter Gauthier — has lived up to the part by delivering a 90-points-and-counting performance. He’s one of the smartest decision-makers you’ll find in a 17-year-old center, and the native Bay Stater should tie or pass Auston Matthews’ single-season NTDP record of 117 points if Smith maintains his 1.96 points-per-game pace through the completion of next month’s U18 World Championship.
Bottom line: The Flyers’ pipeline has plenty of finishers but could use more playmakers. If Cutter Gauthier is expected to be the center of the future, he’ll need protection and a legit competitor to push him there sooner. Smith screams 60 points or more a season once he gets to the NHL and excels at running power play, which has been a problem in Philly for several years.
8. Vancouver Canucks
David Reinbacher, RHD (EHC Kloten, NLA)
The Canucks possess the least-desirable prospect pool among rebuilders or bottom-dwellers by a country mile, which when flipped glass-half-full style celebrates the fact that whomever they pick first at the 2023 draft will get stashed in the loftiest spot in the cupboard. As such, Vancouver can go in any direction with this pick — need, BPA, long-term project, etc.— and still look like a winner once the draft wraps up. But it’s important to note that successive front-office regimes have grossly neglected defense at the draft, so you’d think change is in earnest. Reinbacher will have a ton of pressure on him if or when he becomes the team’s only blue-chip prospect on the back line, but he’s handled on-ice adversity before and possesses a multi-tool kit that should mesh with the Canucks’ skilled forwards while comforting those who desire clean puck management from their defensemen. He’s also competent when running a power play, which he did for Kloten as a draft-year teenager.
Bottom line: As stubborn as team president Jim Rutherford is when it comes to executing a deliberate rebuild, the quality of his defense at the NHL, AHL, and farm system levels rate no higher than poor. Years of actual neglect must cease, and a drafting a mature problem-solver like Reinbacher would be a welcomed change for an organization whose actions screamed “hell no” when it came to the idea of building a championship-caliber defense corps through the draft.
9. St. Louis Blues
Dalibor Dvorsky, C (AIK, Allsvenskan)
This is the first of three top-32 picks belonging to the Blues, which is exactly what they had in 2007 when they grabbed Lars Eller, Ian Cole, and David Perron in Round 1 of that year. Now, if there’s one player in this well-publicized draft class who mimics the heady, physical two-way play that made recently-traded Ryan O’Reilly a household name in St. Louis, it’s Dvorsky — a Slovakian who crushed Sweden’s J20 level and stuck as one of the youngest players in the adult-age Allsvenskan. He has size, toughness, and at times can be more reliable below the dots than his own defensemen.
Bottom line: The Blues are known to develop goalies into NHL starters, but they leaked more goals in 2022-23 than they had in any of the previous 16 seasons. This understandably increases the danger of reactionary drafting to address defense, but in Dvorsky’s case, you’re actually getting a top-notch checker with No. 1 center upside for reasons well beyond off-the-puck play.
10. Washington Capitals
Ryan Leonard, RW (U.S. U18, NTDP)
You can probably count on one hand the number of players in the Caps’ system who classify as fast, skilled, and physical, yet none possess the ability to make an instant impact practically every shift the way Leonard can. He’s been invaluable to the under-18 NTDP as their top-line right wing; one who is a consistent self-starter and closer in all situations conceivable. Committed to Boston College for next season, Leonard was a terror against NCAA competition in his draft campaign.
Bottom line: This spot in the first round is uncharted waters for the Caps, who haven’t drafted this high since taking defenseman Karl Alzner with the fifth pick in 2007. They need to hit big, and Leonard is one of the few top-end prospects available who can provide decisive results and get the crowd’s juices flowing .
11. Detroit Red Wings
Nate Danielson, C (Brandon, WHL)
When it comes to top-end players, being tough to play against isn’t limited to size or physicality, and a creative element must be present. Game-changers who can blend their strength with skill and finesse are always in great demand, especially if they play the center position. Danielson is a tough Western Canadian kid who plays a throwback North American style while dropping highlight-reel sequences in the process. He’s the top dog in every key offensive category for the mediocre Brandon Wheat Kings and wins close to 54 percent of his draws, in addition to being a deadly open-ice threat who executes near-flawless odd-man rushes.
Bottom line: The Red Wings drafted a similar pivot in Marco Kasper last summer and just extended captain Dylan Larkin to lock down center ice for the foreseeable future. But neither move should preclude them from drafting a kid who when all is said and done could be one of the NHL’s top scorers among 2023 draftees.
12. Buffalo Sabres
Andrew Cristall, LW (Kelowna, WHL)
There’s obviously something cooking when Central Scouting ranks one the WHL’s top draft-year scorers as the seventh-best eligible in his own circuit. But this is exactly the kind of scenario where a prospect-rich organization like the Sabres can gamble by ignoring the professional opinions of an objective third party and simply draft a kid who has 40-goal potential. Cristall is far from perfect and can limit himself with rushed decisions, but his shot-release combination, hockey sense, and clutch play easily make up for any minor shortcomings.
Bottom line: Cristall’s off-the-charts numbers for a thin Kelowna squad all but guarantee he’ll be on the radar of Buffalo’s analytics-driven talent evaluators. Continuing the trend of targeting shoot-happy forwards should work out in their favor.
13. Calgary Flames
Brayden Yager, C (Moose Jaw, WHL)
The Flames should be confident in their track record to hit on draft picks regardless of how deep they have to mine for them, but they’ve got it easy in 2023 with what is expected to be a top-15 pick in a deep draft. Yager, who in 2021-22 broke Theo Fleury’s Moose Jaw record for goals by a 16 year old, is exactly what GM Brad Treliving and scouting director Tod Button look for in a Flames’ prospect — hungry, competitive, coachable, and enough skill to intimidate the opposition. His production this season — 70 points in 62 games — should be praised within the context of the average WHL contingent for an NHL draft. But Yager is part of the deepest group in years, meaning the Flames will get top-5 quality in the middle of the first round.
Bottom line: Treliving might be out of a job by the time the draft rolls around, but his enduring gift to the organization will be unifying his staff on the importance of drafting players who work hard, drive possession, and also hit the scoresheet when it matters. The positive results from his previous drafts are tangible, meaning Yager’s development will be in good hands
14. Montreal Canadiens (via Florida)
Axel Sandin-Pelikka, RHD (Skelleftea, SHL)
It feels like ages ago that the Canadiens operated an above-average power play, let alone one that wasn’t detrimental towards the outcome of nearly every game. Sandin-Pelikka could be the answer to the elephant in the room, as he’s proven at several levels that the power play not only runs through him, but can strike often with him running it. Sandin-Pelikka, an elusive dual threat with a hard, accurate shot and 360-degree vision, spearheaded Skelleftea J20’s league-leading power play during the tougher Top-10 portion of the schedule, operating at 30.2 percent.
Bottom line: Sandin-Pelikka is one of only a few quarterbacks available in this draft who have the talent to unlock the mystery behind Montreal’s abhorrent power play. Nobody expected to Habs to challenge for a playoff spot this season, but a power play that operates closer to 20 percent rather than in the low teens may have made their season more interesting. Although Sandin-Pelikka may be a few years from fixing the problem and needs help once he gets there, the potential for him to develop into one of the NHL’s best power-play quarterbacks is high.
15. Arizona Coyotes (via Ottawa)
Lukas Dragicevic, RHD (Tri-City, WHL)
Some might view this as an off-the-board pick, but it’s fair to argue that the quality defenders to be had in the second round also come with a slight degradation in upside. That is not the case with Dragicevic, an all-situations Mr. Everything for Tri-City, and not just because leads the Americans with 55 assists and 70 points while averaging close to 25 minutes a game. Dragicevic is smooth, confident, vocal, and engaged defensively, and he can wire the puck with the best of them. He also addresses the major leak Arizona has on the right side of the pipeline’s defense pool. Dragicevic’s point-producing skills are elite, but he’s far from indecisive in his own end and goes coast to coast with regularity.
Bottom Line: Arizona’s system is bursting at the seams with potential top-six forwards, but the same can’t be said about the defense. History tells us the 10-15 range is when teams will begin gobbling up the top rearguards when the draft is forward heavy, so the Yotes should start the trend instead of being left empty-handed.
16. Nashville Predators
Oliver Moore, C (U.S. U18, NTDP)
You can always count on the Preds to scoop up the most popular or excitable prospect remaining on the board, and the speedy Moore certainly excites. Tasked with the unenviable role of second-line center (err, fiddle?) of the U18 NTDP, Moore handled his duties by generating offense on his own, creating clean looks for his linemates, and putting the fear of God on the opposition. He committed to Minnesota for next season but probably won’t get his chance to anchor the Gophers’ top line until after 2022 top-three pick Logan Cooley signs with Arizona.
Bottom line: This will be the first draft in Preds’ history without David Poile as GM, but don’t expect his replacement Barry Trotz to order Nashville scouts to try a different approach. The team may be transitioning at the NHL level, but they have draft-day flexibility thanks to double-digit picks and a pipeline flowing with high-ceiling options at every position
17. Detroit Red Wings (via NY Islanders)
Otto Stenberg, C/LW (Frolunda J20, Nationell)
Stenberg is a versatile, hard-shooting Swede who can play all three forward positions and deliver a commendable effort away from the puck. He dominates the possession game and is tough to knock off his skates thanks to outstanding edge work, and his shot can humble a goalie even when fired overextended. The Red Wings and Frolunda have been working together for years, and Stenberg’s name carries weight. His power skating and puck domination are advanced, meaning Stenberg could cross the Atlantic sooner than later. Since this pick was acquired from Vancouver in the Filip Hronek deal, it’s possible Detroit opts for a defender who can marinate elsewhere (Loko Yaroslavl’s Dmitry Simashev and Omski Yastreby’s Mikhail Gulyayev come to mind). But if Stenberg — a Swedish version of Carter Mazur — is on the board at 17, an argument can be made that he’s the best player available with the highest upside.
Bottom line: The Red Wings have used a first-round pick on an SHL prospect in three straight drafts, so this pick won’t be anything strange. In fact, you’d have to go all the way back to the 2016 draft for the last time Detroit didn’t select at least one Swedish leaguer in either the first or second round. Stenberg was considered a top-10 pick until injuries slowed him down earlier in the season, and there’s no reason to think he’s trended downward because of anything beyond the insane talent level within his draft class.
18. Winnipeg Jets
Dmitry Simashev, LHD (Loko Yaroslavl, MHL)
It’s hard to understand why Jets’ GM Kevin Cheveldayoff a few years back began tinkering with his defense corps by coveting smaller, skilled playmakers over the brawny and beefy types that often made the Jets impossible to outmuscle. Simashev isn’t a bruising hitter or face-masher, but his puck-carrying ability and deadly accurate first pass are just two of the many ways the 6-foot-4, 198-pound blueliner can neutralize a forecheck. Considering the age of the Jets’ current defensemen, Cheveldayoff’s willingness to draft Russians, and a growing void on defense, drafting Simashev — who is signed with Loko until 2024-25 — will be as prudent a move any GM can make on draft day.
Bottom line: The Jets rarely address need with first-round picks and nine of their last 11 Day 1 selections were scoring forwards. Their system has quality defenders at the AHL level but many have entered their mid-20’s. High-end, big-bodied vacuum cleaners don’t grow on trees, and it’s also important to note that Winnipeg traded its 2023 second-round pick and will miss out on a sizable chunk of first-round caliber rearguards if they go with forward in Round 1.
19. Pittsburgh Penguins
Colby Barlow, LW (Owen Sound, OHL)
Earmarking Barlow as the surprise faller of the 2023 draft wasn’t easy because he’s a highly likable prospect who excels in multiple areas, all while putting together an MVP season for the Owen Sound Attack. The first thing observers should point towards is the 6-foot, 190-pound winger’s finishing prowess — Barlow is on pace for 55 goals, and a low-maintenance 55 goals at that. He kills penalties, competes hard along the boards, and can unfurl labeled darts from just about anywhere inside the opposing end.
Bottom line: The NHL draft has been a backwater event for Steel City hockey fans hockey fans for some time, as the Penguins are contending for the Stanley Cup for a 17th straight season. Going for it every spring has proven costly at the trade deadline, and the lack of first-round picks is what keeps Pittsburgh’s farm system from developing young, cheap contributors, let alone a potential star who can bridge the gap from Sidney Crosby, Evgeny Malkin, or Kris Letang into the next generation. Having a top-32 pick in consecutive drafts will help, and Barlow instantly becomes the Pens’ premier asset.
20. Colorado Avalanche
Calum Ritchie, C (Oshawa, OHL)
A real gamer with ideal size and a deadly catch-and-release wrist shot, Ritchie has battled through the misfortune of suiting up for an OHL doormat by serving as a leader on the ice and delivering clutch play. The Avalanche has next to nothing in the pipeline that could stand in Ritchie’s way of making the team sooner than the average late first-round pick, but Ritchie is the kind of dog-on-bone difference maker who would force any organization to strongly consider fast-tracking him to the NHL.
Bottom line: Colorado’s prospect cupboard is about three-quarters below established strength, meaning the “We just won a Cup” excuse can only last for so long. The Avs had only two draft picks in 2022 and just four in 2021, and the closest they have to a blue-chip forward prospect is KHL scorer extraordinaire Nikolai Kovalenko, who was a sixth-round pick in 2018 and will be 25 if he crosses over after his KHL contract expires in 2023-24. Let’s not forget that Colorado recently moved on from several of their better prospects, so a replenishment is required.
21. Nashville Predators (via Edmonton)
Samuel Honzek, LW (Vancouver, WHL)
A serious skate-cut injury at the last world junior hockey championship hasn’t derailed the hype train that’s been circling Honzek since the beginning of the season. The Slovkian import is fully healthy and looks primed to keep his name in the conversation of potential steals in the latter portion of the 2023 draft’s first round. Now that he’s back with the WHL’s Vancouver Giants, the sturdy winger who keeps the puck on a string can continue spearheading the offense in preperation for the Giants’ first-round playoff series against powerhouses Kamloops or Seattle. Honzek is big, strong, soft-mitted, and one of the stingiest puckhandler’s in his class.
Bottom line: The Predators have eight picks between Rounds 2-4 and should be expected to take an upper cut with this additional first-rounder they received from Edmonton in the Mattias Ekholm deal. Nashville has talented wings in their pool, but the untimely waiving of Eeli Tolvanen and Zachary L'Heureux’s behavioral meltdowns are enough to justify drafting another wing in Round 1 as a contingency.
22. Seattle Kraken
Matthew Wood, RW (Connecticut, HE)
You have to feel for the 6-foot-4, 193-pound Wood in that he’s produced one of the best seasons by an 18-year-old NCAA freshman in years, only to have his accomplishments overshadowed by the near-record production delivered by fellow college newcomer Adam Fantilli. Of course, there’s no shame in being the second-best teenage freshman in the nation, and Wood’s elite-level puck protection, creative playmaking, and wicked snap-shot from a static position all rate in the plus range. Wood isn’t the fastest skater around, but he automatically becomes the unicorn in the organization since nearly all of Seattle’s forward prospects are under six feet tall.
Bottom line: The Kraken likely select the best player available thanks to the flexibility of three second-round picks and 10 total for the entire 2023 draft. But exactly half of the 16 skaters Seattle drafted since 2021 were centers, and only one of the four defensemen grabbed in that span is taller that 5-foot-11. The needs of their expanding pipeline likely get addressed after Round 1, which is why they shouldn’t hesitate taking a high-upside, big-bodied winger like Wood.
23. Chicago Blackhawks (via Tampa Bay)
Adam Gajan, GK (Chippewa, NAHL)
The 2023 draft’s goalie crop is being heralded as the deepest in several years, but many of the notable names at the top have struggled in the second half. One who has lived up to the pressure is Gajan, a 6-foot-2 Slovakian whom you may remember for his 61-save heroics against Canada at the last U20 world juniors championship. There’s more to his draft-year resume than a short tournament, however, as Gajan is one of the NAHL’s top goalies and also posted a 5-1-0 mark and .906 save percentage in his first USHL stint with Green Bay. He’s been great at making successive point-blank saves and staying upright in his post seal to limit sharp-angle goals, all while displaying an advanced IQ for his age. Gajan should require lengthy stints at various levels before challenging for a full-time job on Madison Street, but his ability to steal games while under siege should only get better with age and experience.
Bottom line: It goes without saying that problematic goaltending is part and parcel of being a cellar dweller, and Chicago won’t be the only team with goalie issues picking late in the first round. The Hawks may try to address it on Day 2 thanks to owning four second-round picks, but the gap between this pick and where Chicago drafts in the second round is wide enough for rival rebuilders to sneak the premier goalies through.
24. Minnesota Wild
Quintin Musty, LW (Sudbury, OHL)
Musty is a Kevin Hayes-Matt Boldy hybrid who knows how to use his size to protect the puck and buy him enough time to exploit the space he creates while bringing his elite vision to bear. He’s had his ups and downs with injuries, but nothing else has stood in his way, and OHL opposition can attest to that. The 6-foot-2 Buffalo native is one of only five OHL regulars to average more than a helper per match, and his 49 assists and 72 points in 48 contests have him seventh with a 1.50 points-per-game average. Musty can play a physical game replete with open-ice hits, aggressive 1-on-1 battles, and the occasional fight, and he seems to welcome contact and much as he initiates it.
Bottom line: Minnesota has built a force of a farm system and their Iowa affiliate continues to deliver NHL-ready contributors. Pressure to address a specific area should be minimal because the Wild’s prospect depth offers diverse skill sets at every position, and going with a reach-for-the-stars pick (no pun intended) is what teams like to do when they don’t have holes. Musty was the No. 1 pick in his OHL draft, which by itself includes him in a celebrated group with ties to the NHL’s royal class.
25. Columbus Blue Jackets (via Los Angeles)
Mikhail Gulyayev, LHD (Omskie Yastreby)
A phenomenal playmaker and tone-setter, Gulyayev shouldn’t be called a sleeper or a riser because he’s been top-15 quality within the 2005 year group since before last season. Without thinking about the tournaments he missed and the opponents he spared, the ever-slippery Gulyayev is delivering an all-star-caliber season for a very demanding program with high expectations. He controls the top pairing and on occasion leads four forwards on the power play, but Gulyayev is a selfless partner who has enough awareness to identify multiple options every shift. His numbers in the MHL — 2 goals, 23 assists in 22 games — may peg him as a low-threat goal scorer, but Gulyayev can bring the heat with his shot to create rebounds.
Bottom line: The Blue Jackets definitely don’t need to add more depth to the blue line, but the odds say they’ll select at least one rearguard for what would be the 23rd straight draft. Going this direction not only gives the Jackets the league’s most prized collection of young defensemen, but it also creates the opportunity for a Gulyayev-Bedard combination on the power play. Not a bad option for Pick No. 25.
26. New York Rangers
Etienne Morin, LHD (Moncton Wildcats, QMJHL)
Morin’s Moncton Wildcats may be mediocre in the standings, but compete hard they do, with Morin usually setting the tone early and often. This kid played 30-plus minutes at least 10 times this season, and InStat is clocking him at 27 minutes a game. Morin also achieved important draft-year benchmarks that included him in the conversation for best defenseman in the QMJHL, as well as a trip to the CHL Top Prospects Game and being ranked 24th in North America by Central Scouting.
Bottom line: If the Rangers scouted Maxim Barbashev, then they definitely watched Morin, who is having one of the better draft-year seasons we’ve seen by a QMJHL defenseman, and in both ends of the rink. Drafting blueliners in the first round has been a Ranger thing for some time but it’s been two years and nearly all of their best young defenders have graduated to NHL. In fact, four of the Blueshirts’ seven youngest regulars are on the blue line and their top-two minute eaters are 25 and 23, respectively. But the salary cap loves change, which is why the Rangers should prepare for it.
27. St. Louis Blues (via Toronto)
Gabriel Perreault, LW (U.S. U18, NTDP)
Perreault is pure offense from the flank and has some of the best hands in his class. He knows that shooting is his calling card and does a lot of it, but playing alongside superior puck-handlers in Will Smith and Ryan Leonard usually keeps Perreault to the perimeter, where he won’t hesitate slinging a labeled shot with authority. Overhandling the puck and trying to be too fancy have been problematic all season, but the future Boston College Eagle should continue his net-filling ways upon joining Smith and Leonard next season in Chestnut Hill.
Bottom line: It’s OK to ask why the NTDP’s leading scorer with 102 points in only 50 games is still available at the tail end of the first round. Just make sure you leave him room for improvement and expect Perreault to address his pre-draft shortcomings once he gets to college. He’s a dandy when he’s on, but he needs to get comfortable doing less when more is the wrong alternative.
28. San Jose Sharks (via New Jersey)
Charlie Stramel, C (Wisconsin, Big-10)
Stramel was considered a potential top-10 pick at the start of the season before taking his lumps as a college freshman for a bad team. Big, soft-mitted, and powerful with underrated playmaking ability, Stramel was given difficult jobs and handled them quite well, all things considered. He’s highly active at both ends of the ice, although his desire to provide down-low support and engage in physical 1-on-1 battles can wear him out early into shifts. You still welcome that energy in a big-bodied center, and Stramel looked both confident and comfortable when Wisconsin tasked him with minute-eating roles, key faceoffs, and a regular shift on the penalty kill. He’s not a long-term project, but you want to see Stramel create more extended shifts while spearheading zone time. Stramel is so big and strong he still makes life miserable for the opposition whether he’s scoring or not.
Bottom line: It may have been too close towards draft day for a recently-hired GM to change the draft board, but San Jose’s 2022 class — the first with GM Mike Grier in charge — included five NCAA-bound prospects, which represented the most in one Sharks’ class since 2010. Stramel already has a year of Big-10 hockey under his belt, but he probably needs a full year as the Badgers’ No. 1 center before his future team has a warm and fuzzy on his ability to blend all his strengths on a nightly basis.
29. St. Louis Blues (via Dallas)
Beau Akey, RHD (Barrie, OHL)
Akey may be the most complete defenseman in all of Canadian major junior and he’s an excellent skater to start with. He deserves a ton of credit for ceding his No. 1 role to fellow righty Brandt Clarke, who joined Barrie midseason after he was cut by the Los Angeles Kings. But the nearly three-minute decrease in Akey’s ice time since Clarke arrived hasn’t prevented him from putting up impressive draft-year numbers (10 goals, 35 assists in 60 games) while continuing to smother opposing top players. Stylistically, Akey’s got a little Shea Weber and a lot of Ryan McDonagh, so the Blues wouldn’t be irresponsible betting on his potential as top-pairing defender.
Bottom line: The Blues haven’t drafted a defenseman in Round 1 since 2012 but have unearthed everyday NHL blueliners in Day 2 such as Jake Walman, Colton Parayko, Nikko Mikkola, and Vince Dunn. That track record likely inclines the Blues to strongly consider using this pick on a goalie or another high-ceiling forward like Riley Heidt or Gavin Brindley, but Akey shouldn’t be slept on. He has the goods to become the best defenseman from the 2023 crop.
30. Carolina Hurricanes
Ethan Gauthier, RW (Sherbrooke, QMJHL)
Gauthier can make a tough play look easy and also turn an impossibility into reality. He makes his own luck by having a nose for puck travel, and he’ll welcome the chance to steal a puck and create havoc. His 62 points in 60 games is good for fourth on a juggernaut, and Gauthier is the second-youngest regular on a roster loaded with 2003’s. It isn’t just scoring with Gauthier that impresses, so much as the way he carries himself on the ice, and how he keeps you interested and entertained without needing to do anything flashy.
Bottom line: The Canes have a deep system and deserve credit for holding their ground at the deadline by refusing to deal coveted prospects and future picks. But that narrative will be challenged by an avalanche of negativity if Carolina suffers another early-round playoff knockout, and critics will target GM Don Waddell’s decision to retain this pick instead of using it to add additional veteran firepower. That won’t necessarily add pressure on Gauthier, but it’s fair to assume the Canes want this pick to hit to prove their deadline strategy was sound.
31. Vegas Golden Knights
Gavin Brindley, RW/C (Michigan, Big-10)
Take Fantilli out of the equation, and Brindley’s a no-brainer for the conversation of top NCAA freshman. This second-half heater he’s riding is two months old and it doesn’t seem to be slowing down. With 23 points in his last 16 games and 33 points on the season, the native Floridian shot up to fourth in team scoring and ahead of over a half-dozen teammates who were older and already drafted. Certainly no small feat for any freshman, let alone an 18-year-old in his first draft look. What might be even more impressive is that Brindley put up all those points while playing exemplary in the defensive end and never giving up on plays.
Bottom line: Seven Vegas drafts, seven centers taken first. That’s what I’m predicting and it’s a virtual lock, because for six straight drafts between 2017 and 2022, the Golden Knights took at least one center with their first pick, and also used three of their first four selections in each of the last two drafts on yup, you guessed it — centers. Brindley is a natural pivot who has played plenty of right wing the last two seasons.
32. Toronto Maple Leafs (via Boston)
Oliver Bonk, LHD (London, OHL)
Steady, calming play in the defensive zone is Bonk’s calling card, but he’s not too shabby in the transition game as well. The Knights have counted on Bonk to solve a myriad of problems, and having a Selke-caliber mentor in father Radek has rubbed off on Oliver’s ability to take complete command of his own end in the face of violent clashes as often as during the lulls. Not only is the last pick in Round 1 an acceptable landing spot for a player with Bonk’s top-pairing potential, but it also appeases the Leafs’ sewing circle of ex-London Knights who would welcome a boost to their ranks.
Bottom line: Dubas executed a near-flawless deadline that included sacrificing Rasmus Sandin for a this valuable pick, but at least it leaves Toronto in better shape for the future regardless of playoff success. Sandin may be an emerging young defenseman who could flourish in his new surroundings, but Pick No. 32 in this particular draft is worth doubling down on, especially if you use it on a mature, well-schooled defenseman like Bonk.