2024 Draft: NHL Central Scouting final rankings analysis
Go inside the numbers with another detailed breakdown of Central Scouting's final draft rankings
NHL.com tables (No stats, DOB, or shot):
N. American skaters | N. American goalies | European skaters | European goalies
PDFs (No midterm rank):
N. American skaters | N. American goalies | European skaters | European goalies
Totals (both regions, all positions)
Prospects — 410 (224 NA Skaters, 32 NA Goalies, 136 Euro Skaters, 18 Euro Goalies)
Centers — 113
Left Wings - 57
Right Wings — 63
Left-handed Defensemen — 82
Right-handed Defensemen — 45
Goalies — 50
Key Takeaways
The combined number of sub-5-foot-10 prospects from both regions was halved (30 in 2023 to 15 in 2024). Conversely, the total number of prospects listed at 6-foot-4 or greater increased from 44 in 2023 to 61 in 2024 (Figure 1).
Centers listed between 6-foot and 6-foot-1 increased nearly doubled, from 28 in 2023 to 50 in 2024 (Figure 1).
Only 36 percent of European skater prospects improved from their midterm ranking compared to 46 percent for North American skaters.
The five defensemen among the top 11 North American skater prospects represent the most since 2012, when seven blueliners were ranked in the first 11 slots.
Last year’s final ranking had only three defensemen in the top 20 and nine in the top 15.
The 18 European goalies ranked were the most since 2006.
The total number from both regions of forward prospects ranked in 2024 (233 of 410, or 56.8%) is practically identical to last year’s final Central Scouting list (232 forwards of 412, or 56.3 percent).
Combined defensemen dropped from 33 percent in 2023 (136 of 412) to 30 percent (127 of 410). Left-handed defenders made up exactly 30 percent of the final rankings for the second year in a row. Righties dropped from 52 total in 2023 to 45 in 2024.
Overagers dropped slightly from 20 percent in 2023 (82 of 412) to 18 percent (72 of 410).
Height comparison (2023 CSB Final* vs. 2024 CSN Final)
*The 2023 list had 412 combined prospects. Click here for last year’s CSB Final analysis
Figure 1.
More: Analysis: NHL Central Scouting 2024 Watch List
North American skaters
224 players ranked and no limited viewings (LV)
20 were dropped from midterm (Figure 5); 21 new additions to final (Figure 4). Last year’s list saw 26 dropped from midterm; 25 newcomers to the final rankings.
150 of the 224 prospects ranked in 2024 are forwards (67%) and 74 are defensemen (33%). In Central Scouting’s final 2023 list, 139 of the 224 prospects ranked were forwards (62%) and 85 were defensemen (38%)
Of those 150 forwards, 77 are centers (51.3 percent), compared to 66 pivots (48 percent) last year’s, increasing the overall percentage of centers from 30 percent (66/224) in 2023 to 34.4 percent (77/224) in 2024.
The remaining 73 forwards (32.6%) are wingers — 37 left wings and 36 right wings. The 2023 final rankings also had 73 wingers out of 224 North American skater prospects, but there were 42 right wings (19%) compared to 31 left wings (14%).
Of the 74 defensemen ranked, 39 are left-handed defenders and 35 are righties. Last season’s final rankings had 47 lefties (21%) and 38 righties (17%)
185 North American skaters ranked at final (82.6%) are first-year draft eligible (born between Sept. 16, 2005 and Sept. 15, 2006) and 39 (17.4%) are overagers (26 first-year overagers and 13 double-overagers). Central Scouting’s 2023 list was made up of 181 first-year draft eligibles (81%) and 43 overagers (19%)
North American league breakdown
WHL 51 (45 in 2023); USHL/NTDP 50 (54 in 2023); OHL 50 (49 in 2023); QMJHL 31 (28 in 2023); BCHL 10 (5 in 2023); CJHL 5 (14 in 2023); US-HS 20 (18 in 2023), NCAA 5 (7 in 2023), HS-ON 1 (2 in 2023)
Biggest risers from NA midterm
Figure 2 lists the prospects who jumped at least 25 spots from their midterm ranking. This does not include players who made the list after being omitted from the mid-season release. In total, 118 NA skaters rose at least one spot from their midterm rank, and that includes the 27 additions who we can assume were ranked 225 or lower back in January. That means there were only 91 players from midterm who rose at least one spot, while a total of 125 midterm holdovers dropped by at least one spot. In total, 81 prospects rose 10 spots or higher, 13 jumped six to nine spots, and 24 earned an increase of one to five spots (eight of the 224 kept the same rank from midterm).
Figure 2.
Note 1: It is interesting to mention that there were 14 players in Central Scouting’s latest final ranking who jumped at least 44 spots from midterm compared to 10 in the 2023 final rankings, and of those 10, two went undrafted — 141. Matteo Fabrizi, D (+74) and 106. Anthony Romani, C (+64). The eight whom were drafted into the NHL in 2023 were:
+99 -- 112. Ryan Conmy, RW (Los Angeles, 6th round)
+69 -- 27. Nick Lardis, LW (Chicago, 3rd round)
+58-- 58. Cam Squires, RW (New Jersey, 4th round)
+56 -- 102. Ty Henricks, LW (New York Rangers, 6th round)
+50 -- 72. Matthew Mayich, D (St. Louis, 6th round)
+49 -- 62. Sawyer Mynio, D (Vancouver, 3rd round)
+47 -- 99. Chase Cheslock, D (New Jersey, 5th round)
+44 -- 91. Jonathan Castagna, C (Arizona, 3rd round)
Largest drop from NA midterm rankings
These prospects made the midterm list but fell significantly in the final ranking. In fact 66 of the 224 players ranked fell by at least 10 spots and 32 of those 66 dropped by 30 spots or more.
Figure 3.
Note 2: Of the 10 biggest fallers in last year’s final ranking, two would go on to be drafted — 144. Luke Coughlin, D (Florida, 6th round) and 213. Sam Harris, LW (Montreal 5th round). Coughlin was ranked 79th at midterm before dropping 65 spots, while Harris had the highest dip, down 82 spots from midterm but getting drafted nonetheless as the 213th-ranked prospect.
New additions to NA final list (unranked at midterm)
There were 27 North American skaters added to Central Scouting’s final ranking who did not appear on the midterm list they released on April 16. The players below came from the following leagues: OHL (8), USHL (6), QMJHL (5), WHL (3), NCAA (1), US-HS (1), OJHL (1), BCHL (1), NAHL (1). Also, 14 of the 27 additions are overagers and 13 are first-year eligibles.
Figure 4.
Note 3: In 2023, there were 25 North American skaters added to Central Scouting’s final list after being omitted from the midterm release. Of those 25, only seven would go on to be drafted and all in the fifth round or later. Those prospects were: 107. Justin Kipkie, D (Arizona, 5th round); 114. Rodwin Dionicio, D (Anaheim, 5th round); 124. Jeremy Hanzel, D (Colorado, 6th round); 161. Jacob Julien, C (Winnipeg, 5th round); 171. James Clark, LW (Minnesota, 7th round); 188. David Klee, C (San Jose, 7th round); 194. Sebastian Bradshaw, LW (Dallas, 7th round)
Deletions from NA list (ranked at midterm but not on final)
Central Scouting removed 27 North American skaters from their midterm rankings —- 10 defensemen, nine centers, five right wings, and three left wings. These players came from the following leagues: OHL (6), QMJHL (4), WHL (4), USHL (5), US-HS (4), NCAA (1), BCHL (3). On the 2023 final list, there were 26 North American skater deletions — 13 defensemen, five centers, five left wings, and five right wings. These players came from the following leagues: OHL (8), QMJHL (5), WHL(4), USHL (4), OJHL (2), NTDP (1), BCHL (1), US-HS (1).
Figure 5.
Note 4: None of the 26 deletions from the 2023 final list were eventually drafted, and only one — 2005-born defenseman Marco Mignosa from the OHL — was re-ranked in 2024 as an overager, albeit at midterm before being dropped from the final list for the second straight year.
NA Skaters by league
Figure 6.
European skaters
136 skaters ranked for final list after 135 were ranked at midterm. There were no prospects listed as “limited viewing”. This is a decrease from the 144 European prospects who were ranked on Central Scouting’s final 2023 list.
20 players dropped from the midterm release (Figure 10); 21 new additions made the final list (Figure 9)
84 of the 136 European prospects ranked in 2024 are forwards (62%) and 52 are defensemen (33%). In Central Scouting’s final 2023 list, 93 of the 144 prospects ranked were forwards (65%) and 51 were defensemen (35%)
Of those 84 forwards, 40 are centers (48%), compared to 41 pivots out of 93 forwards in 2023 (44%). The percentage of centers in the overall European skater pool barely went unchanged from 2023 (41 of 144, or 28.5%) to 2024 (40 of 136, or 29.4%).
This year, 21 of the 84 forwards are left wingers (25%), compared to 29 percent last year (27 of 93). Twenty-three European right wings were ranked on the final 2024 list (27%), which is a slight decrease percentage-wise from the 29 percent (25 of 93) on last year’s final European skater ranking.
As far European defensemen are concerned, this year’s final ranking has 42 left-shot defenders (31%) and 10 from the right side (7%). The former represents a five-percent increase from 2023 (37 lefties, or 26%), while the latter is a decrease from the 10 percent (14 of 144) in 2023.
114 European skaters ranked at final (83.8%) are first-year draft eligible (born between Sept. 16, 2005 and Sept. 15, 2006) and 22 (16.2%) are overagers (17 first-year overagers and five double-overagers). Central Scouting’s 2023 European skater list was made up of 122 first-year draft eligibles (84.7%) and 22 overagers (15.2%);
European leagues by nation
2024 — Sweden 41, Russia 31, Finland 27, Czech Republic 17 Slovakia 4, Switzlerland 9, Germany 4, Norway 2, Austria 1
2023 — Sweden 49, Russia 35, Finland 26, Czech Republic 19, Slovakia 6, Switzlerland 5, Germany 4
Biggest risers from European midterm
A significant disparity between Central Scouting’s regional skater rankings can be found in the percentages of players whose final rank increased by at least one spot versus those who were dropped by at least one spot (excluding new additions and deletions). In terms of jumping into a higher rank from the midterm list (again, excluding new additions), North American skaters represented 46.2 percent of climbers (91 out of 197 midterm holdovers) on their list versus 35.7 percent for European skaters (41 out of 115 midterm holdovers). Therefore, a significant percentage of Europeans were docked on the final ranking while their North American counterparts maintained balance with those who jumped forward. It’s their list and they can do whatever they want, but a potential trend to monitor for bias nonetheless.
Figure 7.
Note 5: Another significant change from last season’s final European skater list was the number of prospects who jumped 24 or more spots. As you can see in Figure 7, only two prospects — double-overage defenseman Frans Haara and center Simon Zether — moved up at least 24 spots, whereas last year’s final Euro ranking had 10 large-scale risers, and of those 10, four were drafted into the NHL — 24. Felix Nilsson, C (+54, Nashville, 2nd round); 57. Felix Unger-Sorum, RW (+33, Carolina, 2nd round); 18. Oscar Molgaard, C (+32, Seattle, 2nd round); and 75. Stepan Zvyagin, LW (+24, Florida, 7th round). Surprisingly, five of last year’s biggest Euro risers were neither drafted in 2023 nor ranked on the 2024 midterm or final lists.
Largest drop from midterm European rankings
Last season’s final European skater ranking saw 44 of 144 prospects (30.6 percent) drop at least 10 spots from the midterm list, whereas the 2024 final release saw only 31 of 136 — or 22.8 percent— have a double-digit drop from midterm. According to Figure 8, 16 forwards and nine defenseman were dropped 15 spots or greater, but in terms of overagers, the disparity is stark — first-year eligibles made up 80 percent of the most pronounced sliders.
Figure 8.
Note 6: Russian and Sweden prospects at nine apiece made up 72 percent of the fallers listed in the above table. Last season’s final CSB draft list saw 10 European prospects drop at least 25 spots or more compared to 12 this year. Of those 10, only defenseman Axel Hurtig was drafted (Calgary, 7th round) despite dropping from 44th at midterm to 100 on the final list.
New Additions (unranked in midterms)
For a second straight year, a total of 21 European skater prospects made the final list but were not ranked at midterm, although last year’s final ranking had 144 players compared to 136 in 2024 (135 at midterm). The players listed in Figure 9 came from the following leagues: Sweden (9), Russia (5), Finland (3), Germany (2), Czech Republic (1), Switzerland (1). Eleven of the 21 are overagers, including three ranked in the top-60, and 16 of the 21 are forwards. The bigger takeaway, however, is that 18 of the 21, or 86 percent, were not mentioned on Central Scouting’s preliminary watch list of over 470 prospects.
Figure 9.
Note 7: Late-season additions to the final European skater rankings appear to experience a similar fate as their North American counterparts, as over 70 percent of on last season’s final ranking (76.2 percent of the 21 newbies to be exact) went undrafted in 2023, and the five who were picked up — 59. Daniil Karpovich, D (New Jersey, 6th round); 94. Vilmer Alriksson, LW (Vancouver, 4th round); 114. Norwin Panocha, D (Buffalo, 7th round); 116. Samu Bau, C (Arizona, 6th round); and 125. Oiva Keskinen, C (Columbus, 7th round) — were selected outside of the first three rounds.
Deletions (ranked at midterm but not on final)
Central Scouting replaced 20 European skaters from their midterm rankings one year after dropping only five. They also increased the final 2023 European list from 130 at midterm to 144. Obviously that wasn’t the case this year, which makes to fair to question the reasoning beyond whether they had a substandard second half. Of the 20 removed, however, 17 were on the preseason watch list, with seven getting a C grade.
Figure 10.
European Skaters by nation
Figure 11.
Goalies
Figure 12.
There were 32 North American goalies ranked for a fourth straight year. The final European list had 18 netminders, the most since 2006, six more than last year’s 12 and eight more than the 10 ranked in 2022.
Only one of the 50 combined goalies was listed below six feet tall — new addition Petteri Rimpanen from Kiekko-Espoo in the second-division Mestis and Team Finland’s U18 squad. He is listed at 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds.
Only two North American goalies had double-digit changes to their respective midterm ranks and they simply swapped places — Landon Miller from the OHL’s Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds jumped from 17th at midterm to sixth while WHL’er Evan Gardner of the Saskatoon Blades did the opposite, falling to 17th on the final ranking after placing sixth at midterm.
All 15 goalies from the European midterm ranking made the final list as well. Only two top-10 Euro goalies from midterm fell out of the top 10 in the final ranking — Veet Louhivaara dropped from fifth to 11th and Vojtech Hambalek from 10 to 12.
Five of the 32 North American goalies ranked are from high schools; the most since five were listed in 2009.
Only one goalie from the seven new additions to last year’s combined goalie list was eventually drafted — 7th-ranked EUR-G Visa Vedenpaa (Seattle, 6th round). Conversely, none of the six deletions from the 2023 midterm list were selected.
Extras
NHL draft picks not ranked on Central Scouting’s final list (2018-2023)
2023: 24/224 (11%) - 1st Round: 0, 2nd Round: 0, 3rd Round: 0, 4th-7th Rounds: 24
2022: 38/225 (16%) - 1st Round: 0, 2nd Round: 1, 3rd Round: 1, 4th-7th Rounds: 36
2021: 23/224 (10%) - 1st Round: 0, 2nd Round: 0, 3rd Round: 3, 4th-7th Rounds: 20
2020: 27/217 (12%) - 1st Round: 0, 2nd Round: 0, 3rd Round: 2, 4th-7th Rounds: 25
2019: 32/217 (15%) - 1st Round: 0, 2nd Round: 1, 3rd Round: 1, 4th-7th Rounds: 30
2018: 30/217 (14%) - 1st Round: 0, 2nd Round: 0, 3rd Round: 3, 4th-7th Rounds: 27
Teams with most players ranked in 2024 (all positions)
U.S. U18, NTDP (19)
HV71, SHL/J20 (10)
Mississauga, OHL (7)
Shattuck-St. Mary’s (6)
TPS U20/SM-Liiga (5); Brantford, OHL (5); Oshawa, OHL (5); Calgary, WHL (5); Muskegon, USHL (5)
Leagues with most players ranked (all positions)
USHL/NTDP (57); OHL (57)
WHL (56)
J20 Nationell (42)
QMJHL (35)
MHL (27)
US-HS (24)
SM-Sarja (22)