2024 Draft Recap: Florida Panthers
The defending Stanley Cup champions dipped into the European well on Day 2 for three high-ends talents good enough for the first or second round.
NASHVILLE (The Draft Analyst) — Those familiar with my work know how I feel about draft report cards, even if I’ve been guilty of feeding that beast throughout the last 10 years. But my thoughts on the latest 2024 results will be more than broad brush strokes, as pinning the rose on 12 uninterrupted months of in-depth analysis from both the team and prospect standpoints requires more than the standard letter-grade marking scheme acting as the rubric. Rather, draft hauls will be evaluated and labeled on the following criteria, which I think are both fair and reasonable:
Strong — Any four of potential franchise player(s) drafted; needs addressed; first-round caliber picks in the second or third round; multiple home-run swings in later rounds; point-producing sleepers; the majority of prospects were in top-line/top-pairing/starter roles (Ex. Buffalo’s 2022 draft)
Above-average - Any three of needs addressed; multiple home-run swings; acknowledged consensus favorites; the majority of prospects were in top-line/top-pairing/starter roles; making more with less; first-round quality in the second or third round. (Ex. Carolina’s 2023 draft)
Average — A solid first- or second-round pick but mostly unspectacular thereafter (Ex. Colorado’s 2020 draft)
Below-average — Quantity over quality; over-drafting of higher-round picks/reaching; four picks or less with no first-round selection; obsession with overagers (Ex. New York Rangers’ 2018 draft or Ottawa’s drafts from 2021-2023)
Poor — Any three of unpopular reach in the first round, no picks in the first or second round; needs not addressed, obsession with overagers, leaving upside on the board for projects, or bucking popular consensus choices (Ex. Arizona’s 2020 draft)
Outlook
Things on the farm system front could be way worse for the defending Stanley Cup champions, who under the leadership of general manager Bill Zito have shown a willingness to relinquish control of draft capital at the trade deadline only to require assets once the draft is underway. Although the pipeline is mostly devoid of awe-inspiring talent, there are enough bodies at every position to afford Zito and his staff the flexibility to at least plan for the promotion of tempered AHL contributors, which understandably didn’t happen all that often during Florida’s recent march to consecutive finals appearances.
Drafting for skill has been a Panther hallmark for over a decade, even if the results have been closer to average than anything else. Hits and misses dot Florida’s recent draft history, but each of its classes tend to be more balanced position-wise than most contenders and you rarely see one of their annual hauls lean entirely toward one specific position or need within the system. Thus, the Cats entered the 2024 draft with a total of 36 picks made between 2019 and 2023, and the vast majority are still with the organization. The naysayer will point to the fact that only 12 of those picks were taken from the first three rounds, or that Florida has traded first-round picks in 2022, 2023, and 2024 while failing to benefit from most of the Day 1 selections they have made since a strong run in the early 2010s.
Nonetheless, there remain a handful of on-the-cusp prospects (speedy winger Mackie Samoskevich for starters) for the Panthers to build around and there isn’t a single position within the pool that requires a complete makeover. But neither should have precluded Florida from attacking the 2024 draft from an aggressive best-player-available posture.
MORE: 2024 NHL Draft Report (PDF Download)
Traded picks
Getting the lineup they wanted didn’t come cheap for the Panthers, who traded their first-round pick in each of the last three drafts and were slated to begin the second day of this year’s event without selections in the second and seventh rounds.
But before we begin analyzing what developed into an impressive Day 2 haul, it’s important to mention the after-effects of Florida’s costly acquisition of Claude Giroux from Philadelphia three deadlines ago. Although Giroux was a lifelong Flyer with many suitors, the Panthers had an all-in approach that made relinquishing young sniper Owen Tippett (who went 10th overall in 2017), a third-round pick in 2023, and a first-rounder in 2024 all the more negotiable.
As it turned out, Giroux would leave the Panthers to sign with Ottawa after he played in only 28 combined games for Florida between the regular season and playoffs, while Tippett has posted seasons of 27 and 28 goals in Philadelphia and the 2023 third-round pick was used on Denver Barkey, who just registered a 100-point seasons for the OHL-champion London Knights. As for the 2024 first-round pick, the Flyers shipped it to Edmonton for a protected 2025 first-rounder and the Oilers used their selection to take Barkey’s teammate, center Sam O’Reilly at 32nd overall.
Of course, the sting from paying through the nose for what turned out to be a short-term rental would brief differently had Giroux won a championship with Florida. But he didn’t, and the Panther pipeline became a tad weaker nonetheless.
Zito made a smart move to get into the second round by sending his 2025 second-round pick and the 225th and final selection in this year’s draft to Toronto for 59th overall, which the Maple Leafs acquired from Anaheim via Boston during the Day 1 swap that allowed the Ducks to jump forward to grab defenseman Stian Solberg. The Panthers then took a best-player-available approach and grabbed first-round quality in mature Swedish center Linus Eriksson, who has top-six potential and was ranked 19th overall in my top 100. Toronto would choose big-body defender Nathan Mayes with Florida’s seventh-rounder, which the Cats previously retained when their Stanley Cup victory triggered the conditions of the Kyle Okposo acquisition from Buffalo, which instead received Florida’s fifth-round pick. The Sabres then moved that pick to Colorado in a separate deal which allowed the Avs to draft playmaking WHL center Max Curran.
After taking high-ceiling prospects Matvei Shuravin and Simon Zether with his own picks in the late third and fourth rounds, respectively, Zito opted to move down using the lone draft pick he acquired from Philadelphia in the Giroux deal — a 2024 fifth-rounder which slotted at 141st overall. The Seattle Kraken proved to be a willing partner, as they shipped high picks in the sixth (169th) and seventh (201st) to Florida so the Kraken could take exciting Swift Current winger Clarke Caswell. The Panthers took a swing on big Belye Medvedi center Stepan Gorbunov with the sixth-rounder and fellow MHL’er Denis Gabdrakhmanov — a game-stealing overage goalie — with the seventh.
MORE: 2023-24 NHL Farm System Rankings and Assessments (Pre-Draft)
Draft picks
Assessment: Above average
The Panthers did exactly was any sane person would do if presented with the opportunity to draft first-round caliber prospects without actually owning a first-round pick. And it’s ironic that the same men who constructed Florida’s title-winning lineup that every organization is trying to mimic went ahead and drafted some of Europe’s top prospects after those same NHL teams passed on them for size, or grit, or character, or double-overagers who happened to be “great kids”. Although certainty usually is reserved for the first two or three picks, this particular Panther class should be treated kindly by history, especially since three of their picks were all rated within the top 18 of NHL Central Scouting’s European skater rankings.
The most notable of their six Day 2 selections was Eriksson, whose heady 200-foot play and clutch scoring forced him onto the A-team’s playoff lineup for the ever-critical mission to graduate from relegation. Not only did Eriksson deliver statistically, but he showed up in big moments and did so with 17-year-old Victor Eklund (a top 2025 draft prospect) playing on his wing. Florida’s decision to surrender a 2025 second-rounder and the second-to-last pick in this year’s draft makes more than enough sense, especially since a strong argument can be made for Eriksson automatically vaulting into the top spot among Panther center prospects.
Florida continued with its best-player-available strategy in the late third round by stealing potential top-pairing defenseman in Shuravin, a physically mature and an intense competitor who deservedly landed in my top 40. He carries a strong reputation in Russian hockey circles and isn’t far removed from top-10 pick Anton Silayev in terms of shutdown ability and defending below the hashes. Although he missed half of last season, it’s not out of the question for Shuravin to play his entire draft+1 with contending CSKA in the KHL, where he is under contract until the end of the 2025-2026 season.
Another stellar 200-foot Swedish center landed on Florida’s lap at the end of the fourth round, where Zether had no business lasting that late. He checked every box that nearly every opposing scouting director and GM repeated throughout the weekend — size, compete, skill, 200-foot play, strong tournament showings, and experience against adult competition. Zether was ranked 52nd overall on my final release and Central Scouting had him 18th among European skaters.
The Panthers made it two Swedes and two Russians with their first four picks after they traded out of the fifth round for a sixth and seventh, using the former to take Gorbunov, a middle-six center on a strong Belye Medvedi squad that advanced deep into the MHL playoffs. You may hear valid complaints about Gorbunov’s skating, but the kid is an intelligent puck distributor and strong on faceoffs, especially on the penalty kill.
There were several high-profile Europeans remaining on the board when the Cats landed overage winger Hunter St. Martin with the final pick of the sixth round, but they earned the right to go the CHL overager route after nailing their first four picks. St. Martin is a tough 200-foot winger who did a lot of grunt work on Medicine Hat’s top six, including a lengthy stint as a winger alongside top- 2024 draft prospects Cayden Lindstrom and Andrew Basha. As such, St. Martin saw a major spike in production from his first look, going from eight goals and 22 points in 61 games in 2022-23 to 24 goals and 52 points in 68 contests last season. He was a sixth-round pick in the 2020 WHL draft, but keep in mind that he can play center and played his best hockey of the season after Lindstrom was out with his injuries.
As for the 6-foot-4 Gabdrakhmanov, he too is an overager who took his game to a higher level in his second look, although his team was terrible, and he most certainly wasn’t. He was Tyumensky Legion’s undisputed No. 1 after being third-stringer for most of his 2022-23 draft season and was outstanding in the second half despite receiving zilch in goal support. He makes it sixth straight drafts where the Panthers have taken at least one goalie after avoiding the position between 2016 and 2018.
MORE: 2024 Draft: Round 1 Pick-by-Pick Analysis and Grades