2024 Draft Recap: Nashville Predators
Deliberate player development strategies are in concert with Nashville's ability to consistently nail it at the draft, which they most certainly accomplished in 2024.
NASHVILLE (The Draft Analyst) — Those familiar with my work know how I feel about draft report cards, even if I’ve been guilty of feeding that beast throughout the last 10 years. But my thoughts on the latest 2024 results will be more than broad brush strokes, as pinning the rose on 12 uninterrupted months of in-depth analysis from both the team and prospect standpoints requires more than the standard letter-grade marking scheme acting as the rubric. Rather, draft hauls will be evaluated and labeled on the following criteria, which I think are both fair and reasonable:
Strong — Any four of potential franchise player(s) drafted; needs addressed; first-round caliber picks in the second or third round; multiple home-run swings in later rounds; point-producing sleepers; the majority of prospects were in top-line/top-pairing/starter roles (Ex. Buffalo’s 2022 draft)
Above-average - Any three of needs addressed; multiple home-run swings; acknowledged consensus favorites; the majority of prospects were in top-line/top-pairing/starter roles; making more with less; first-round quality in the second or third round. (Ex. Carolina’s 2023 draft)
Average — A solid first- or second-round pick but mostly unspectacular thereafter (Ex. Colorado’s 2020 draft)
Below-average — Quantity over quality; over-drafting of higher-round picks/reaching; four picks or less with no first-round selection; obsession with overagers (Ex. New York Rangers’ 2018 draft or Ottawa’s drafts from 2021-2023)
Poor — Any three of unpopular reach in the first round, no picks in the first or second round; needs not addressed, obsession with overagers, leaving upside on the board for projects, or bucking popular consensus choices (Ex. Arizona’s 2020 draft)
Outlook
The Predators were open about their desire to add skill to the center ice position and size on defense, which may sound surprising considering they already possessed one of the flashiest talent pools. But first-year general manager Barry Trotz is a man who doesn’t tap dance around assessing the state of his franchise with accuracy, which is exactly how he presented himself when serving as an NHL head coach (and a damn good one, at that) for 15 seasons. Of course, the Predators under his predecessor David Poile had a reputation for the same, and it’s clear his policy of protecting prospects from being prematurely thrust into the NHL spotlight without a heavy dose of minor-league refinement, which in some cases led to debuts coming at 24 or 25 years old, will endure under the new regime.
Helping drive this patient approach is the fact that Nashville has been nothing less than a competitive team since Trotz guided the 26-year-old franchise to its first playoff appearance as the Predator head coach in 2003-04, marking the beginning of an impressive run in which they made the postseason in 16 of the next 20 campaigns. Even in the off chance that they fail to qualify, there remains a fight-to-the-end spirit that should serve as a badge of honor for a franchise that avoids the firesale route and takes pride in recording 10 straight seasons of a .561 points percentage or better.
And through it all, the Preds manage to stockpile the more important high-round draft picks, which between 2019 and 2023 totaled 18 within the first three rounds — three more than their initial allocation. In other words, Nashville scouts saying they want to beef up the center and defense ranks doesn’t imply either position is in a state of neglect. In fact, of the many NHL-Caliber prospects in the Predators’ top-five-rated farm system, seven are former first-round picks, including one each at the center and defense. As such, simplifying Nashville’s process to quality over quantity or substance over semblance would be more than fair. In any event, the more important reality is that the Predators continue to reinforce their strong reputation as a franchise, and smart decisions at the draft table.
MORE: 2024 NHL Draft Report (PDF Download)
Traded picks
This was Trotz’s first draft as Nashville’s nominal GM and he established a baseline for future endeavors by actively shopping picks in each and every round. Although not every deal would come to fruition, the Predators lived up to their words by using added draft capital from prior trades for more than simply adding bodies to their already-rich pipeline. Whether you want to label this approach as gaining flexibility or increasing the hit rate depends on the point of view. What cannot be debated is how Nashville’s aggressiveness concerning draft positioning has been mostly unmatched in the last two years.
Their first draft-related move of 2024 actually took place three days before the festivities were officially underway. Using winger prospect Jesse Kiiskinen (68th overall in 2023) and Tampa Bay’s 2024 second-rounder (53rd overall) from the massive return for power forward Tanner Jeannot at the 2023 deadline, Trotz picked up 6-foot-4 right-shot defenseman Andrew Gibson, also a 2023 draftee (42nd overall). The initial reaction to the deal was that Gibson may have been a valued Predators target last year considering a) the price they paid to acquire him usually applies to a roster player and b) Gibson at last year’s draft was taken by Detroit at 42 and Nashville was next at 43, although the latter pick was used on a winger.
Nonetheless, Kiiskinen vs. Gibson is a wash on the prospect front any way you slice it, so it is the additional second-rounder that makes this a clear-cut overpay. The Red Wings quickly made their intentions clear, however, as the pick was immediately sent to the San Jose Sharks as a sweetener for the unloading of veteran defenseman Jake Walman’s contract. The Sharks went on to select high-scoring Swedish defenseman Leo Sahlin-Wallenius, who was first-round quality.
Trotz stuck with the 22nd pick on Day 1 despite plenty of activity from teams in that range, specifically, the Canadiens trading up from 26 to 21 with Los Angeles to draft center Michael Hage and Anaheim jumping from 31 to 23 with Toronto to grab physical two-way defenseman Stian Solberg. What’s interesting about the Hage selection is that he went one spot before Nashville took a center themselves — violent Russian pivot Yegor Surin. Afterward, Trotz said he was busily trying to move up from 22 specifically for Surin but wound up drafting him at no extra cost. The naysayer may question the validity of Trotz’s claim by simply asking why he didn’t trade up from 22 to take Surin earlier despite Trotz being armed with three second-rounders and two thirds to do so, but it’s basically moot at this point.
The second day resulted in Trotz moving the second of his two initial second-rounders, this time being the 59th overall pick (via the Winnipeg Jets for an expiring Nino Niederreiter) to the Philadelphia Flyers for their 2024 third (77th overall) and an additional 2025 third-rounder. Philadelphia would take big-body defenseman Spencer Gill at 59 while the Preds got a similar type in Viggo Gustafsson at 77, with no gap in upside between the two and a strong case can be made that Gustaffson is the better option. But the fact that the Preds moved both 2024 second-round selections to come away with a prospect from 2023 and another from 2025 tells you exactly how their scouts felt about this draft after the first round.
Speaking of third-rounders, you may recall Nashville making a draft-day swap with the Dallas Stars at the 2023 event in which the Preds traded down from 79th overall for two picks in 2024 — a third and a sixth. This move was odd at the time since the 2023 crop was far superior to 2024 and Dallas was in a contention window to increase the chance for both picks winding up at the bottom of their respective rounds. The Stars last year went on to take OHL center Brad Gardiner, who had an unspectacular draft+1 with the Ottawa 67’s, while Nashville used the 2024 third (94th overall) on large dual-threat winger Hiroki Gojsic after having already dealt the late 2024 sixth (190th overall) to Arizona on March 8 for rental Jason Zucker. The former Coyotes (now Utah HC) wound up taking Norwegian project defenseman Ludvig Lafton in the sixth round, although Lafton struggled to earn regular minutes with Rogle J20. The issue with this trade is not as much what the Predators ended up with (Gojsic and 18 games of Zucker) as much as who they didn’t draft in Round 3 in 2023 (sniper Aydar Suniev, elite goalie Egor Zavragin, and 100-point OHL’er Denver Barkey, to name a few).
There was more pick movement in the fourth round, which at the end of the regular season contained three Nashville selections, with the two extras coming from Chicago (99th overall via Tampa Bay in a 2023 draft-day deal, but more on that in a second) and the Edmonton Oilers (128th from the Mattias Ekholm trade). But aggressive moves have ruled the Predator offseason, even while other teams were still involved in the playoffs.
On May 21, Trotz delivered a strategic maneuver by shipping pricey top-four defender Ryan McDonagh and Edmonton’s 2024 fourth back to Tampa for a 2025 second-rounder (presumably late) and a 2024 seventh (213th overall), with the latter resulting in double-overage center Erik Pahlsson, who was a top scorer in both the J20 Nationell and the USHL. The Lightning used the 128th pick on Hagen Burrows, a star for Minnetonka High School and winner of Minnesota’s prestigious Mr. Hockey Award, which happened to be claimed the season prior by winger Jayson Shaugabay — Tampa’s 2023 fourth-rounder (115th overall) that was acquired from the Preds for a 2024 fourth. Nashville cashed in at 99th overall to nab Czech goalie Jakub Milota, and although Shaugabay was taken 16 picks later the previous year, he’s expected to be a top NCAA scorer within two or three seasons.
In between all this fourth-round moving and shaking was yet another Nashville trade, this time to move down from its own spot at 119 to 127, where the New York Rangers were drafting. The add-in was a 2026 seventh-rounder, but the bigger story here was the Predators taking big-time sleeper Viktor Norringer, a dangerous finisher with size and well-placed toughness from Frolunda J20 who was completely ignored by NHL Central Scouting on all three of their lists. The Rangers jumped up to take nondescript QMJHL center Raoul Boillard.
Conversely, Nashville may look back with regret on a seemingly harmless deadline move last March that cost a 2024 fifth-rounder. Although there was a slim chance they would have targeted excitable Czech center Miroslav Holinka at 151st overall, the pick itself was used to acquire what became only 21 games worth of winger Anthony Beauvillier, who was acquired from Chicago. The Hawks were then forced to ship the pick to the Toronto Maple Leafs per conditions in the Jake McCabe trade.
The Predators’ sixth-rounder (183rd overall) belonged to Edmonton as part of the aforementioned Ekholm deal and the Oilers would come away with double-overage J20 defenseman Albin Sundin. Lastly, the 2024 seventh which Nashville sent to the New Jersey Devils last year to draft winger Aiden Fink at 218th overall eventually went to the Colorado Avalanche, who took though yet skilled NTDP center Christian Humphreys with the 215th pick.
MORE: 2023-24 NHL Farm System Rankings and Assessments (Pre-Draft)
Draft picks
Assessment: Strong
Drafting for need after broadcasting that very intent weeks before execution may seem like irresponsible, but the Predators are in the upper half of quality drafters and likely have enough faith in their scouts and their proven track record to avoid copycatting the rest of the league’s draft-day tendencies.
The Surin pick at 22nd overall was as smart as it gets, not only for the expected landing spot matching the pre-draft projection but also for Surin being one tough S.O.B. whose high-end skill and 200-foot play match what 2021 Predator first-rounder Fyodor Svechkov has provided the contending Milwaukee Admirals last season. Surin certainly plays the heavier game, however, and one can only imagine the possibilities of placing him on a line with equally-physical types such as wingers and recent Nashville first-round picks Zachary L'Heureux (2021) and Joakim Kemell (2022).
An equally commendable pick came at 55, where the Predators stole line-driving NTDP winger Teddy Stiga, a Boston College commit who probably wins a “player’s player” type of award at some point in what should be a long career. Why Stiga fell as far as he did is one of the draft’s bigger mysteries, especially since the second round was full of sub-six-foot forwards, many of whom went earlier than 55.
Each of Nashville’s third-round picks earned the high-upside tag based on impressive draft seasons highlighted by consistent performances. Gustafsson was a middle-pairing stalwart for a powerful HV 71 J20 squad and also ate minutes for Team Sweden’s U18 program, while slick WHL winger Miguel Marques at 87th overall is another potential gem who led a thin Lethbridge attack after losing its three top scorers from two season ago. Gojsic is a physical winger with soft hands who was taken with the 94th overall pick and showed great chemistry with top-10 pick Tij Iginla. Both he and Marques are right-shot right-wingers, which makes sense after trading Kiiskinen, a third-rounder himself, only a few days before the draft.
Goaltending depth has never been a problem for the Predators at any level and the primary reason for it is drafting at least one nearly every year. After temporarily breaking from that tradition in both 2021 and 2022 (the last time consecutive Predator draft classes were goalie-less was in 2009 and 2010), Nashville got right back to it by taking triple-overager Juha Jatkola in the fourth round of last year’s draft and Milota in the same bracket in 2024. Milota, a 2006-born Czech who was listed at 6-foot-1 by Central Scouting, was arguably the QMJHL’s top rookie netminder after leading all first-year goalies with a .905 save percentage and an 18-11-1 mark for Cape Breton. Milota is expected to take over the Eagle cage for the now-traded Nicolas Ruccia after serving as backup during the entire QMJHL postseason.
Nashville didn’t get cute with any of their eight picks, seven of which were notable first-year eligibles and five of those seven skaters ranking in the top 75 in their respective region on Central Scouting’s final list. The two exceptions — Norringer in the fourth round and the double-overage Pahlsson in the seventh — were top-line types on their respective junior teams. Yes, Pahlsson should have been drafted two years ago after he torched the J20 Nationell for HV 71, but the future Minnesota Golden Gopher has nothing but time on his side to at least develop into a capable middle-six center at the AHL level.
Another noteworthy characteristic about this particular Predator draft class is that a lack of size did not preclude scouts from rewarding each prospect’s level of individual excellence. Thus, there should be little to no debate as to whether each player selected by Nashville could be classified as a best-player-available type — all of them were in one form or another.
MORE: 2024 Draft: Round 1 Pick-by-Pick Analysis and Grades