2024 Draft Recap: Ottawa Senators
2024 Draft Recap: Ottawa Senators
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
NASHVILLE (The Draft Analyst) — Those familiar with my work know how I feel about draft report cards, even if I’ve been guilty of feeding that beast throughout the last 10 years. But my thoughts on the latest 2024 results will be more than broad brush strokes, as pinning the rose on 12 uninterrupted months of in-depth analysis from both the team and prospect standpoints requires more than the standard letter-grade marking scheme acting as the rubric. Rather, draft hauls will be evaluated and labeled on the following criteria, which I think are both fair and reasonable:
Strong — Any four of potential franchise player(s) drafted; needs addressed; first-round caliber picks in the second or third round; multiple home-run swings in later rounds; point-producing sleepers; the majority of prospects were in top-line/top-pairing/starter roles (Ex. Buffalo’s 2022 draft)
Above-average - Any three of needs addressed; multiple home-run swings; acknowledged consensus favorites; the majority of prospects were in top-line/top-pairing/starter roles; making more with less; first-round quality in the second or third round. (Ex. Carolina’s 2023 draft)
Average — A solid first- or second-round pick but mostly unspectacular thereafter (Ex. Colorado’s 2020 draft)
Below-average — Quantity over quality; over-drafting of higher-round picks/reaching; four picks or less with no first-round selection; obsession with overagers (Ex. New York Rangers’ 2018 draft or Ottawa’s drafts from 2021-2023)
Poor — Any three of unpopular reach in the first round, no picks in the first or second round; needs not addressed, obsession with overagers, leaving upside on the board for projects, or bucking popular consensus choices (Ex. Arizona’s 2020 draft)
Outlook
The Ottawa Senators have been a problematic hockey organization for several years and almost all of it has to do with their maddening underperformances season after season by an indisputably talented group of players. Changes for the better that were expected to develop in the wake of the 2022 passing of tight-fisted owner Eugene Melnyk have yet to surface, as last season was the fourth straight in which Ottawa’s favorite sons failed to deliver back-to-back improvements in the standings while extending their franchise-worst playoff drought to seven years.
Oh, and there were scandals too, and the three that stand out – the release of power forward Alex Formenton for his alleged involvement in a sexual assault, the gambling-related suspension of center Shane Pinto for half the season, and the in-season firing of ex-general manager Pierre Dorion for “negligence” in what became a voided trade of winger Evgeny Dadonov – would have an impact in both the standings and the draft process (more on the latter after a few brief words).
Nonetheless, a Matterhorn-esque incline up the Atlantic standings since Ottawa’s rebuild began officially in 2017-18 never materialized despite Dorion at the start of the 2021-22 season essentially guaranteeing brighter days were ahead. This expectation certainly looks foolish in retrospect, but it was neither unreasonable nor unattainable at the time, not with significant parity within the conference and a nucleus that would enter last season with six forwards who reached or surpassed the 55-point mark at least once since 2022, not to mention the luxury of three defensemen capable of reaching the 40-point mark. Dorion would eventually be replaced by Steve Staios less than two months after the latter was named president of hockey operations on Sept. 23, 2023 by owner Michael Andlauer, who also owns the Ontario Hockey League’s Brantford Bulldogs and employed Staios in that same capacity from 2016-22.
Calling the Senators problematic suggests that there must be at least one rags-to-riches example in today’s NHL that can serve as a prototype, or at a minimum, a baseline reference point to compare glidepaths side by side. But Ottawa is but one of several Atlantic Division rebuilders suffering through a postseason dry spell, as the Detroit Red Wings last qualified in 2016 but unlike the Senators have enjoyed annual point increases since 2021. A simple look at past standings shows Ottawa finished one point behind Detroit three seasons ago, 73 to its 74, then jumped the Wings 86 to 80 the following year, only to fall back to 78 points while Detroit improved to 91 and nearly made the wild card.
Another postseason wanna-be placing ahead of Ottawa were the Buffalo Sabres (86 points, 13-year playoff drought), while the Montreal Canadiens at 76 points gained 16 points on the Senators from the season prior. Perhaps the old adage that misery loves company is one way for both the organization and the fanbase to cope with the ongoing downturn, and perhaps there’s solace in the Sabres, Red Wings, and Sens respectively ranking 1-2-3 for the league’s longest active playoff drought.
But recent performances at the NHL draft and the subsequent creation of talent-rich farm systems is where both Detroit and Buffalo can draw a fortified line that separates the state of their respective rebuilds from that of the Senators, whose reputation for draft-day excellence and possessing a rich prospect pool took punishing body blows almost immediately after selecting cornerstone pieces in winger Tim Stutzle (third overall), defenseman Jake Sanderson (fifth), and center Ridly Greig (28th) in the first round of the 2020 draft.
Although the big club boasts franchise-caliber pieces at several positions, that shouldn’t preclude the Sens from concurrently replicating a second wave at the prospect level. Two of the second-rounders drafted by Ottawa in 2020 — wingers Roby Jarventie (33rd overall) and Egor Sokolov (61st overall) — combined for only 20 NHL games before being traded this offseason for wingers Xavier Bourgault and Jan Jenik, respectively. In 2021, the Senators went way against consensus opinion for the No. 10 pick and gambled on oft-injured winger Tyler Boucher, who is the first top-10 selection since defenseman Olli Juolevi (fifth overall in 2016) to not play in at least one NHL contest within his first three post-draft seasons. Ottawa later compounded the situation on Day 2 of the 2021 draft class by not offering contracts to three players, including second-rounder Ben Roger (49th overall) and fourth-rounder Carson Latimer (123rd overall).
Although it would be unfair to fault Dorion entirely for the actual prospects selected, a pattern certainly began to develop where Senator scouts were leaving higher-upside options on the board in favor of big-body types with lower ceilings. Although it’s undeniable that the desire to “go big” at the draft isn’t limited to the Senators, their number of drafted prospects 6-foot-2 or greater jumped from 43 percent (16 of 37 picks between 2013 and 2018) to 67 percent (28 of 42 picks between 2019 and 2024). More to follow on this, I promise.
But before we move forward, it’s important to mention that Ottawa’s pre-draft farm system ranked 26th of 32 teams — 26th for a non-playoff team that has been in a lottery position every year since 2020 and in six of seven since they last made the playoffs. Although their current nucleus is both impressive and almost entirely comprised of former first-round picks drafted between 2015 and 2020, the combination of sloppy draft habits thereafter and the trading away high-round picks, including what became the seventh overall pick to Chicago for one season of Alex DeBrincat and the 12th pick in 2023 to Arizona/Utah for the now-traded Jakob Chychrun, could create a doomsday scenario in which the Senators will continue to suffer from the lack the necessary talent that hastens the escape non-playoff purgatory.
As such, most current Senators’ prospects wouldn’t crack the top 10 on nearly all prospect depth charts belonging to current long-term rebuilders, at least on paper. The bright side is that there is positional balance throughout the pipeline and that the law of averages states at least two or three neophytes from Ottawa’s own upper tier, namely Kleven, center Zack Ostapchuk (39th overall in 2021), and winger Angus Crookshank (126th overall in 2018), should be full-time NHLers within the next season or two.
MORE: 2024 NHL Draft Report (PDF Download)
Traded picks
Dorion was a notorious draft weekend trader who would test and tinker fate more than he probably should have, or at least that’s what his post-2019 record indicated before he was let go. From his criticized shuffling during the 2020 and 2021 drafts to paying through the nose in draft capital for one underwhelming 2022-23 season of sniper Alex DeBrincat two years ago, Dorion and former scouting director Trent Mann made a habit of talking a good game to maintain optimism, even after their the bulk of their questionable moves — trading up in the second round for Tyler Kleven in 2020 notwithstanding — failed to bear fruit.
Perhaps the crescendo of criticism impacted Dorion’s restraint in 2023 in what would be his final draft with the Senators; specifically by avoiding the tried-and-true tactic of compensating for the lack of a first-round pick by adding later-round assets. Dorion was mostly inactive at the 2023 draft in Nashville, but that neither appeased the fanbase nor provided his player development staff more to work with. The result was Dorion leaving Music City with only five picks, none of which came from the first three rounds. Again, this was a team that finished sixth in the division and 21st overall in extending a playoff skein to six years, and the highlight of their draft was (with all due respect to Hoyt Stanley) an NCAA-bound defenseman taken in the fourth round.
Ironically, it would be Dorion’s repeated cannonballs into the muddied depths of trade market that resulted in both his dismissal and the forfeiture of a 2025 first-round pick, the latter per the league’s punishment for the Dadonov debacle. To his credit, he did leave Staios with two first-round picks in 2024 — his own at No. 7 and the lesser 25th overall selection from Detroit via Boston for DeBrincat — plus a high second-rounder; each with the ability to substantially boost the value of his farm system, or at a minimum, give Staios assets to dangle on the trade front. Still, the hopes of many would rest on the shoulders of Staios and Senator scouts to break what had been an irritating cycle of uninspiring Ottawa drafts.
But Staios, knowing full well that subpar goaltending had crippled the franchise for years, would pounce on the opportunity to nip it in the bud by packaging disappointing goalie Joonas Korpisalo, fourth-liner Mark Kastelic, and the No. 25 pick (that Boston later used on gargantuan center Dean Letourneau) for 2023 Vezina-winner Linus Ullmark just a few days before the 2024 draft. Problem solved, for now.
Although Staios wouldn’t trade another pick for the remainder of the weekend, he made another headline-grabbing deal on July 1 by sending puck-mover Jakob Chychrun (with one year left before unrestricted free agency) plus a third-round pick in 2026 to the Washington Capitals for veteran righty Nick Jensen, who will be 34 on opening night but costs $600K less against the cap and is signed for two more seasons. In retrospect, Dorion’s acquisition of Chychrun was a failure of significant proportions, as the Sens were essentially forced to move him after only 94 games and only have an aging Jensen to show for it — at an additional cost of a 2023 lottery pick that the Utah Hockey Team used on powerful winger Daniil But at 12th overall, plus two second-rounders and a third in 2026. Yeesh.
Additional Notes
- The 2024 second-round pick Ottawa acquired from Washington for Connor Brown on July 13, 2022, would change hands two more times before a selection was made at 49th overall. The Sens packaged the pick to Arizona/Utah in the Chychrun deal on March 1, 2023, only for Utah to move it to the New Jersey Devils early into Day 2 of this year’s draft for veteran defenseman John Marino. The Devils would select Russian-born USHL goalie Mikhail Yegorov.
- The Blackhawks closed Version 1.0 of the Alex DeBrincat trade by drafting rugged 200-foot winger A.J. Spellacy with Ottawa’s third-rounder (72nd overall). That mega-deal from the 2022 draft now reads one 27-goal, 66-point season of DeBrincat for 2022 first-rounder defenseman Kevin Korchinski (seventh overall), center Paul Ludwinski (39th overall in 2022), and Spellacy.
- Ottawa selected hulking Minnetonka winger Javon Moore with the fourth-round pick (112th overall) acquired from Detroit as part of the deal that sent DeBrincat to the Red Wings on July 7, 2023. The final tally now reads DeBrincat to Detroit for one season of winger Dominik Kubalik (who will play in Switzerland in 2024-25), physical minor-league defenseman Donovan Sebrango, the 2024 first-round pick (Letourneau) used to acquire Ullmark, and Moore.
- The Senators selected overage power forward Blake Montgomery with the 2024 fourth-round pick (117th overall) they had acquired from Tampa Bay (along with winger Mathieu Joseph) at the 2022 trade deadline for center Nick Paul. Joseph played just over two seasons in Ottawa and was recently traded to St. Louis along with a third-round pick in 2025 for future considerations. Montgomery’s older brother Bryce is an ECHL defenseman who was drafted by the Carolina Hurricanes in 2021 with the Sens’ sixth-round pick that Dorian used to trade up and select winger Carson Latimer, who is no longer with the organization.
-Carolina drafted underrated two-way Russian defense prospect Timur Kol with Ottawa’s sixth-round pick (168th overall), which the Canes had acquired at the 2024 trade deadline for minor-league center Jamieson Rees, who is signed until next season.
-The Toronto Maples Leafs sealed the infamous Matt Murray trade by drafting physical BCHL defenseman Matt Lahey with the Senators’ 2024 seventh-round pick (200th overall). The deal now reads Murray, Ottawa’s 2023 third-round pick (that became winger Juraj Pekarcik after the Leafs sent it to the St. Louis Blues in the three-team Ryan O’Reilly trade), and Lahey for future considerations.
MORE: 2023-24 NHL Farm System Rankings and Assessments (Pre-Draft)
Draft picks
Assessment: Average
If anything can be said about Ottawa’s draft habits in recent years, it’s that their scouts have an almost unabashed approach that basically tells popular opinion where it can go. Although the team’s all-time history at the tables is quite rich with successes, the last handful of bland Senator classes read more like something you’d expect from a perennial contender with few openings or those of a rebuilder with a blue-chip heavy pipeline that only requires a final touch-up.
As we already knew heading into the draft, the Sens were neither contending nor in possession of any blue chips, so what exactly would be the intent behind using not one, not two, not three, but now four consecutive drafts where high-upside scoring or anything resembling dynamism was almost entirely overlooked? To think that wouldn’t be a directive from higher and that Ottawa’s penchant for drafting players with size is nothing more than a coincidence is incredibly shortsighted, and you’ll soon see why.
Opening their weekend was the selection of WHL-trained defenseman Carter Yakemchuk, who was considered a potential top-10 pick at least a year before the Senators took the rangy right-handed shot at seventh overall. Still, the expectation that he would go lower was by no means irrational considering the inordinate number of cornerstone blueliners linked to the upper half of the first round, or simply the dense fog of ambiguity that prevails in the months before the actual names are called. But the bigger takeaways aside from Yakemchuk being a coveted righty was his top-pairing acumen that translated to a 30-goal season and a skill set that includes wheels, a booming shot, and a mean streak, thereby making him just as deserving at seventh overall as Zeev Buium, Zayne Parekh, and Sam Dickinson, all point-producing defensemen themselves but finished higher in NHL Central Scouting’s final ranking.
But none of that should be important as Yakemchuk is now the best and brightest prospect in Ottawa’s system regardless of where he was taken, while the excitement generated was no greater or less than if the Sens selected anyone else not named Macklin Celebrini. Additionally, Yakemchuk’s physical maturity (6-foot-3, 201 pounds) improves the likelihood of an extended look while wearing Senator black as early as next season and allows fans to envision a super-pairing alongside future all-star Jake Sanderson.
You would think the targeting of an ultra-skilled playmaker like the dangling Yakemchuk represented the opening phase of a progressive and balanced approach aimed at reshaping Ottawa’s oft-criticized drafting practices. Instead, each of the remaining five picks was anything but surprising, as size ruled the day in what felt like a repeat of their 2020 or 2021 draft hauls. They used the 39th pick on undisciplined, turnover-happy Swedish rearguard Gabriel Eliasson, who does offer a nasty side that includes big hits, punishing board play, and unfortunately, his own interpretation of the rule book. He was a top-pairing type for the Swedish U18 team and ate minutes for deep HV 71 J20, but his lack of self-control and often puzzling decisions under a heavy forecheck (despite possessing both quick hands and feet) will likely keep him pinned to a depth role until further notice. Ottawa scouts said they liked Eliasson’s toughness, but their pipeline already had plenty with the same trait.
The Senators were neither loaded nor thin at one particular position within the prospect pool, although depth-line wingers far outnumbered those highlighted by plus measurables. Nonetheless, they decided to add another “character” type straight off the assembly line in versatile forward Luke Ellinas, who played all over the Kitchener Rangers lineup as a pure OHL rookie and shook off a dreadful start (seven goals in his first 50 games) by coming on late, specifically in the opening-round playoff series against the Erie Otters. Ottawa scouts pointed to his strong finish as a key factor, but drafting him probably had as much to do with the convenience of Kitchener defender Matt Andonovski being a Senator pick the year prior. Ellinas will likely play center in his draft+1 but it will be interesting to see if his mostly uneventful on-the-puck displays will improve after the Rangers graduated several of their best scoring threats.
Javon Moore was next at 112th overall and was a prospect that NHL Central Scouting likely overhyped because of his size, which helped him maintain his good standing during a fairly average regular season for a Minnesota high-schooler. Propping him up was a loaded Minnetonka squad that went undefeated during the regular season and was a lock for state before getting suffocated (Moore included) by No. 4 Chanhassen in the Section 2A final, but he still finished 47th on Central Scouting’s final list for North American skaters. But the bigger concern should be that Moore was a 6-foot-3, 195-pound winger in high school who only took over shifts sporadically and had a tougher go of it against schools with size on defense. Moore is a Minnesota commit but will spend his draft+1 in the USHL despite turning 19 in early December, so you can only hope that his plus abilities in puck control, puck protection, and playmaking will shine bright as he traverses a harder circuit.
The Senators took overage winger Blake Montgomery with the last of their three fourth-round selections within a 14-pick span, but it is Montgomery who appears to have the highest upside of anyone after Yakemchuk in Ottawa’s 2024 draft class. Unlike Moore, Montgomery played his 18-year-old season as a pure USHL rookie for the Lincoln Stars and delivered, potting a team-high 22 goals and displaying a sweet finishing touch and extreme confidence on the puck. Although the decision to take him over 2005-born Noah Powell and his USHL-best 43 goals will remain ripe for scrutiny, there is enough evidence to suggest Montgomery at worst has the makings of a quality AHL player whose blend of size and skill should make him a tough out in future training camps.
Closing it out in the fifth round at 136th overall was physical Finnish defenseman Eerik Wallenius, a big boy like Eliasson who was a sloppy puck handler under duress and was more cold than hot as a minute-eater for his junior club (most of his season was spent in the under-18 bracket). What made this pick extra puzzling was that Ottawa’s Finnish scout and the rest of the crew felt Wallenius was superior to 6-foot-2 blueliner Sebastian Soini, who played most of his draft season in Finland’s adult-age Mestis and is an impressive skater with shutdown ability. Several additional names remaining on the board were home-run types, namely forwards Joona Saarelainen, Luke Misa, Miroslav Holinka, and Justin Poirier, but the over-drafting of Wallenius made it nine defensemen drafted by Ottawa in the last three years.
But before I go…
In the video clip near the intro, the question of whether size is a preference was posed to several Ottawa scouts, and each one essentially said no at first, but then mentioned their size right off the bat. But before I begin, I think it’s great that the Sens’ website had their reporter ask each regional scout about the player they obviously pulled for.
George Fargher on defenseman Carter Yakemchuk (seventh overall):
“Big right-shot defenseman”
On defenseman Gabriel Eliasson (39th overall):
“Big, physical, strong defenseman”
On whether size was a point of emphasis:
“I wouldn’t say (size) was a huge influence, but the types of players we like were in that situation where size was an important part of their game.”
Andreas Ostberg on what stood out about Eliasson:
“Eliasson’s physical game. He’s 6-foot-7, huge kid who will fill out to be a monster.”
On whether size was a requirement for the draft:
“I wouldn’t say so…it just happened in a natural way that we got the best players we wanted”
OK, so let’s hold on for just one second. It’s been a while since I was in journalism school and was taught about the non-denial denial, but let’s really go over what these two dudes actually said. The first guy mentioned size right off the bat when describing Yakemchuk and Eliasson, and how they as a staff liked players whose size was important to their games. Then the second guy began his Eliasson assessment with another mention of size, then said size wasn’t a requirement for their draft list, but that the players they wanted just happened to be big.
Puh-lease. I mean, I shouldn’t have to break that down Barney-style, but here’s my basic interpretation of yet another example of scouts kinda, sorta talking out of both sides of their mouths:
Q: What kind of cars do you like? A: Red cars. Q: Tell us about the two cars you bought. A: Well, they’re red. Really red. Q: What else did you like about the cars? A: Besides being red? Q: It seems like buying a red car was your intent? A: No, not really. It just so happened that they were red when I went to buy the cars.
More Ottawa scouts chime in. Notice no mention of IQ or skill to lead things off.
Kyle Flanagan on the upside of winger Luke Ellinas (104th overall):
“His upside is probably a bottom-six guy, high-character kid, 200-foot player. He’s 6-foot-2.”
Dan Boeser on winger Javon Moore (112th overall):
“He’s a really big kid…Going to be a huge man when all is said and done.”
Bob Janecyk on overage winger Blake Montgomery:
“He’s a good-sized kid…Good-sized winger.”
Mikko Ruutu on defenseman Eerik Wallenius:
“Big boy, a defensive d-man.”
On whether size was important:
“It wasn’t really a plan, but you like bigger defensemen”
MORE: 2024 Draft: Round 1 Pick-by-Pick Analysis and Grades