2024 Draft Recap: Seattle Kraken
2024 Draft Recap: Seattle Kraken
A diverse group of centers highlighted a Kraken draft class for the fourth year in a row
NASHVILLE (The Draft Analyst) — Those familiar with my work know how I feel about draft report cards, even if I’ve been guilty of feeding that beast throughout the last 10 years. But my thoughts on the latest 2024 results will be more than broad brush strokes, as pinning the rose on 12 uninterrupted months of in-depth analysis from both the team and prospect standpoints requires more than the standard letter-grade marking scheme acting as the rubric. Rather, draft hauls will be evaluated and labeled on the following criteria, which I think are both fair and reasonable:
Strong — Any four of potential franchise player(s) drafted; needs addressed; first-round caliber picks in the second or third round; multiple home-run swings in later rounds; point-producing sleepers; the majority of prospects were in top-line/top-pairing/starter roles (Ex. Buffalo’s 2022 draft)
Above-average - Any three of needs addressed; multiple home-run swings; acknowledged consensus favorites; the majority of prospects were in top-line/top-pairing/starter roles; making more with less; first-round quality in the second or third round. (Ex. Carolina’s 2023 draft)
Average — A solid first- or second-round pick but mostly unspectacular thereafter (Ex. Colorado’s 2020 draft)
Below-average — Quantity over quality; over-drafting of higher-round picks/reaching; four picks or less with no first-round selection; obsession with overagers (Ex. New York Rangers’ 2018 draft or Ottawa’s drafts from 2021-2023)
Poor — Any three of unpopular reach in the first round, no picks in the first or second round; needs not addressed, obsession with overagers, leaving upside on the board for projects, or bucking popular consensus choices (Ex. Arizona’s 2020 draft)
Outlook
Making a graceful an exit from the Western Conference playoff picture sooner than expected would be a kindest way possible for an optimist to label what happened to the Seattle Kraken in their third year of existence. But Seattle’s steps off the stage were more clumsy and meek than they was inspiring or valiant, as the Kraken went 6-12-2 in their final 20 games to fall from six points from the wild card with a game in hand to a losing record and fifth place in an average Pacific Division.
This unfortunate outcome for the NHL’s newest expansion team would have been less disappointing had the Kraken not advanced to within a game of the 2022 Western Conference Final and raise expectations for the season that followed. General manager Ron Francis reacted accordingly last offseason by extending those who deserved to be extended and shrewdly added additional pop to a lineup that was rightfully labeled as dangerous prior to the start of the 2023-24 campaign.
But an 8-14-7 record by mid-December proved to be significant body blow to the Kraken’s playoff chances, and an anemic offense that ranked 29th in the league offset the nightly efforts made by their goalies and defense that propelled Seattle to top-nine finishes in both goals against and save percentage. Head coach Dave Hakstol was the easy scapegoat for a calamitous offense and was fired less than two weeks after the Kraken’s season finale.
One consistent positive since joining the league, however, has been the development of Seattle prospects in the minors, many of whom were acquired in the early rounds of the 2022 and 2023 drafts. The AHL affiliate in Coachella Valley has reached the Calder Cup Finals in each of its two seasons, but last year’s squad included seven regulars who were recent draft picks. Although permanent spots with the parent club are limited, it appears that Francis is open to incorporating more homegrown talent into the everyday lineup. Whether they can help make the team better is another story, but the simple fact that the team is now open to promoting their most deserving prospects and also willing to deal others for veteran help is proof that building a farm system from the ground floor can be easier than a painstakingly renovation of someone else’s dated vision.
This is where missing the playoffs is a blessing in disguise for an organization that is only a few years old. The firing of a head coach one season after qualifying and winning a round clearly shows impatience, perhaps at the ownership level as much as with Francis himself. But gaining a third top-10 pick in four years plus an extra second-rounder from unloading Alex Wenneberg’s expiring deal at the trade deadline further strengthened an already robust Seattle pipeline that ranks among the league’s best.
Traded Picks
Francis, unlike most GMs, was quite candid in his post-draft media session when asked if he tried to make moves up or down the board during either of the two days in Las Vegas. Not only did he admit to attempting to do both, but he also mentioned trying to package picks for actual players, which goes back to his end-of-season press conference in which Francis said he felt comfortable enough with the depth of his farm system to trade living, breathing prospects for a lineup upgrade instead of just picks.
Any attempts to do so never went public, however, as Francis and chief scout Robert Kron instead did what they usually do, which is keep their picks where they initially slotted, albeit with one minor exception in the fifth round. According to both Francis and Kron, Seattle scouts were quite impressed with exciting WHL winger Clarke Caswell, who led the Swift Current Broncos is scoring and should never have slipped as low as the middle of the fifth round, which is where the Kraken had to trade up to nab him. The cost to move up nearly a full round from 169 to 141 and select a high-yield scorer was modest — a 2024 seventh-rounder to the Florida Panthers, who took bulky 200-foot center Stepan Gorbunov at 169 and over Russian goalie Denis Gabdrakhmanov at 201.
Additional Notes
-Seattle drafted rugged two-way center Nathan Villeneuve with the 2024 second-round pick (63rd) it acquired from the New York Rangers at the 2024 trade deadline for veteran center Alexander Wennberg.
-The Kraken selected Finnish goalie Kim Saarinen with the 2024 third-round pick (88th overall) they acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs as part of the return package for defenseman Mark Giordano and forward Colin Blackwell. The final tally now reads Giordano and Blackwell from Seattle to Toronto for a 2022 second-rounder (#58 - goalie Niklas Kokko), a 2023 second-round pick (#57 - puck rusher Lukas Dragicevic), and a 2024 third-rounder (#88 - goalie Kim Saarinen)
-Seattle took Czech defender Jakub Fibigr at 202nd overall with the 2024 seventh-rounder it received from Calgary at the 2022 trade deadline as part of the Calle Jarnkrok deal. Previously included in the Kraken return was a 2022 second-round pick (dual-threat center David Goyette at 61st overall) and a 2023 third-rounder that Seattle later used to acquire sniper Oliver Bjorkstrand from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Calgary would reaquired the 2023 third-rounder and select sniper Aydar Suniev at 80th overall.
-It is worth mentioning that the Kraken at press time are no longer loaded with excess picks as they were in each of their previous three drafts, but they still own seven selections in each of the next five.
Draft Picks
Assessment: Strong draft
It was no secret that this year’s draft featured the deepest crop of top-caliber defensemen since 2018, making it highly unlikely that NHL scouts from any of the 32 teams weren’t aware of the fact that four of last season’s top 10 in defense scoring – Quinn Hughes (1st), Evan Bouchard (4th), Noah Dobson (7th), and Rasmus Dahlin (10th) – were all lottery picks in that draft year. Yes, it is true that being drafted in the first round is not a prerequisite for NHL greatness, let alone being a reliable contributor on a top pairing. But the gap between those chosen on Day 1 and those taken thereafter is beginning to widen again, at least if you go by time-on-ice numbers, power-play quarterbacking responsibilities, and of course, production. In other words, the best blueliners in the league are coming from the upper portions of the first round, and any staff who thinks they have the Midas touch in the later rounds are advised to take advantage of the opportunity at least once every few years.
But the Kraken clearly didn’t see things this way when it came time to make their selection at eighth overall. Although four elite defense options remained on the board for their taking, Seattle scouts opted for prolific scorer Berkly Catton, a dynamic center who conveniently plays his junior hockey only a short flight from Seattle. In hindsight, this was as paradoxical a pick as we saw in Vegas, as Catton and his 54-goal, 116-point season for the WHL’s Spokane Chiefs made him the center with the highest upside after Macklin Celebrini, but one who could be labeled as an excessive add for a team like Seattle, which took 11 pivots between 2021 and 2023, five of which from within the first two rounds. Conversely, only two defensemen from either of the first two rounds within that span became Kraken property, creating a significant disparity in both talent and depth between positions within their system. In other words, the Kraken should have considered a blue-chip defense prospect a priority of the highest order but instead went for another center.
Nonetheless, Seattle opted for not one but three centers with each of their first three picks despite a strong pivot presence already established within the pipeline. This was certainly a choice, but the latter two — WHL Finnish import Julius Miettinen and OHL’er Nathan Villeneuve — are cut from a different cloth than Catton. Not only do they have a significant advantage in both size and physicality, but each can flip the nasty switch while engaged in cerebral 200-foot play. Although prior knowledge of Seattle’s system would reveal a legitimate need for size down the middle, the fact remains that the Kraken left a ton of blueline skill on the table with each of their two second-round picks.
Now, there isn’t anything necessarily wrong with drafting for need when you already own an enviable prospect pool, and Kraken scouts certainly showed good taste. The only potential problem that could develop out of Seattle’s obvious preference for center is needing to play catch-up with what the rest of their bubble brethren within the conference have already accomplished, which is add at least one high-ceiling defense prospect from recent drafts.
Still, the post-draft Kraken depth chart on the prospect side got stronger thanks to a third consecutive year of three or more picks within the first two rounds, including another top-10 selection. Does Catton followed by say, uber back-end puck magicians Cole Hutson at 40th overall and Noel Fransen at 63rd not only look better on paper but also iron-clad the prospect depth chart? Of course, but Francis isn’t entirely wrong in prioritizing center ice. It’s also possible that he might have draft-day PTSD from his Carolina days, when he took disappointing rearguards Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean with high first-rounders in 2014 and 2016, respectively.
The Kraken eventually made an off-the-board pick for their first defenseman of their draft class, QMJHL righty Alexis Bernier at 73rd overall. What was questionable about this decision beyond had more to do with who was still available — Henry Mews, Viggo Gustafsson, Veeti Vaisanen, Sebastian Soini, and Aron Kiviharju were among at least two defenders with better draft seasons or had serious boom potential. Nonetheless, Bernier ate tough minutes for contending Baie-Comeau the entirety of last season, including warrior-like performances in the playoffs.
Not as puzzling was Seattle’s next pick, also in Round 3 but at 88th overall courtesy of the Toronto Maple Leafs from the Mark Giordano trade. The selection of Kim Saarinen was very on-brand for the Kraken, as the 6-foot-5 backstop made it four straight years of Seattle taking a netminder and three in a row with one from Finland. When asked if this was by design, scouting director Robert Kron told reporters that Finnish goalies appeal to him mostly because they have a good track record of success in the NHL, which is also true of those from Russia, which on paper offered a deeper, more established crop to NHL clubs. Still, Saarinen is a solid long-term project pick and he’s already playing regularly in the adult-age SM-Liiga.
The real sleepers of Seattle’s class were centers as well and both from the WHL — heady Red Deer playmaker Ollie Josephson in the fourth round and super-skilled Swift Current Bronco Clarke Caswell in the fifth. Each ranked in the top 80 among North American skaters in Central Scouting’s final list, as was final pick Jakub Fibigr, a Czech import for the OHL’s Brantford Steelheads whose pedal-to-the-metal style from the blueline makes him an offensive threat and another option to eventually audition for Coachella Valley’s power-play quarterback.