2024 Draft Recap: Tampa Bay Lightning
2024 Draft Recap: Tampa Bay Lightning
The Bolts bucked the size trend while drafting nothing but middle-rounders in their deepest class in three years
NASHVILLE (The Draft Analyst) — Those familiar with my work know how I feel about draft report cards, even if I’ve been guilty of feeding that beast throughout the last 10 years. But my thoughts on the latest 2024 results will be more than broad brush strokes, as pinning the rose on 12 uninterrupted months of in-depth analysis from both the team and prospect standpoints requires more than the standard letter-grade marking scheme acting as the rubric. Rather, draft hauls will be evaluated and labeled on the following criteria, which I think are both fair and reasonable:
Strong — Any four of potential franchise player(s) drafted; needs addressed; first-round caliber picks in the second or third round; multiple home-run swings in later rounds; point-producing sleepers; the majority of prospects were in top-line/top-pairing/starter roles (Ex. Buffalo’s 2022 draft)
Above-average - Any three of needs addressed; multiple home-run swings; acknowledged consensus favorites; the majority of prospects were in top-line/top-pairing/starter roles; making more with less; first-round quality in the second or third round. (Ex. Carolina’s 2023 draft)
Average — A solid first- or second-round pick but mostly unspectacular thereafter (Ex. Colorado’s 2020 draft)
Below-average — Quantity over quality; over-drafting of higher-round picks/reaching; four picks or less with no first-round selection; obsession with overagers (Ex. New York Rangers’ 2018 draft or Ottawa’s drafts from 2021-2023)
Poor — Any three of unpopular reach in the first round, no picks in the first or second round; needs not addressed, obsession with overagers, leaving upside on the board for projects, or bucking popular consensus choices (Ex. Arizona’s 2020 draft)
2023-24 Exit Interview (Julien BriseBois)
Outlook
Success carries a heavy price tag in one form or another, with the hunter becoming the hunted requiring intensified efforts to remain a hard and elusive target. After falling just short of winning a third consecutive Stanley Cup in 2022, the Tampa Bay Lightning are no longer the class of the Atlantic Division, let alone the Eastern Conference or the entire league, and their contention window appears perilously close to sealing shut.
It should count in their favor that the Bolts’ downward trajectory is more gradual than it is unsettling, as it would be unfair to expect sustained, near-historic excellence from a veteran-laden team mere seasons removed from the NHL’s longest playoff-series winning streak in almost 40 years. That doesn’t mean general manager Julien BriseBois hasn’t had work to do, not when his once-ascendant group seemed like they lost their playoff mojo overnight. But consecutive first-round knockouts, first from the forever snakebitten Toronto Maple Leafs in 2022, followed by last season’s five-game dud against the rival Florida Panthers, are contributing factors toward Tampa’s perceived fall from grace. As such, a chicken-or-the-egg debate pertaining to goals allowed, or in the Bolts’ case, goals prevented, is at the crux of their shortcomings.
Some say it all went south after pricey top-pairing defenseman Ryan McDonagh was shipped to the Nashville Predators less than a month after the Lightning were eliminated by the Colorado Avalanche in Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. The cap-clearing move was deemed necessary at the time by BriseBois, who up to that point had given out long-term extensions to top players but wanted to do the same for his valuable depth pieces.
Little did BriseBois realize that the loss of McDonagh was just the tip of the iceberg, as a long-term injury to blue-line stalwart Mikhail Sergachev that was preceded by All-World goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy’s offseason back surgery made the Lightning much easier to score on. As a result, the Bolts dropped from sixth in goals allowed in 2022 to 22nd last season, with Vasilevskiy in that same two-season span seeing his quality-start percentage plummet from .619 to .519 (he also is slashing 3.45/.885 in his last 11 playoff starts). Hence, a blame game developed as to whether the leakage is tied to the defense or the goaltending, which helped accelerate BriseBois’ desperation level to the point where long-tenured holdovers from the glory days were considered expendable.
Two of their bigger names with new addresses are future Hall-of-Fame center Steven Stamkos, who signed with Nashville, and Sergachev, who was moved to the Utah Hockey Club at the draft for budding two-way standout Janis Moser, and top center prospect Conor Geekie. Shocking developments in the hockey world, no doubt, but both are directly tied to Tampa’s salary-cap crunch from rewarding its star-studded core with long-term extensions, several issued before the cap went flat following the pandemic.
The good news is that the widely-known deficiency in defending their goal (and its profound impact on Lightning success) has been identified and isolated. Solving it is what seems to be confounding BriseBois, whose Midas touch for impactful deadline deals no longer makes the Bolts a tougher out in the second season.
Nonetheless. these unfortunate realities haven’t been crippling at the macro level, as the Lightning in this so-called regression has posted consecutive 98-point efforts, essentially making them a 100-point-caliber team in each of the last seven years. Naturally, keeping this talented ship afloat generally requires success in player development after cultivating a robust farm system, the latter of which in Tampa’s case currently ranks near the bottom after years of deadline dealing.
The Lightning’s ability to strike it rich in the later rounds of the draft, as had been the case for years under former scouting director Al Murray, has been dormant for a while, although Tampa scouts will probably tell you their current AHL affiliate in Syracuse has more than a handful of future NHL-caliber players who simply have to continue their extended development. At the same time, you wouldn’t necessarily be wrong to label Tampa’s deliberate approach as a sort of passive minor-league imprisonment for their prospects, as a handful of Bolt draftees have been in the AHL for four full seasons or more.
Of course, BriseBois appears to remain confident in Tampa Bay scouts (and subsequently, player development), which he reiterated at the 2023 trade deadline after moving five assets for bruiser Tanner Jeannot. It’s no secret that all players drafted after the second round have a lower hit rate the deeper they go in the later stages. Still, Tampa is an interesting case study in that the heavy AHL seasoning of its prospects coupled with the Bolts’ past successes in player development leaves the door open for several from their current pool to hit big. The problem is, we haven’t seen it yet, as the 36 Tampa draftees between 2018 and 2022 have combined for 90 NHL games, and the latter number since 2020 has dropped to only five NHL appearances. Again, the Bolts were winning Cups and in the process were filling roster spots with veterans, trading picks, and drafting late, but this explains the lack of recent homegrown talent more than it excuses it.
Another draft-related oddity is the Lightning’s disproportionate choosing between centers and wingers since 2018. After selecting 13 centers in the four drafts between 2014 and 2017, Tampa took only four between 2018 and 2023, while the wing position in the latter span saw an average of over three per Lightning draft class. Put a gun to my head, and I’m calling this stark disparity a consequence of hitting big in the middle rounds with current top-six centers Brayden Point (2014) and Anthony Cirelli (2015) than pure coincidence, which in turn increased the likelihood that the Lightning would use their 2024 draft class — which was slated to begin in Round 4 — to add more centers than any previous draft since 2018.
MORE: 2024 NHL Draft Report (PDF Download)
Traded picks
Another way to put a positive spin on trading away high-round picks for hired guns is that a halved draft allocation makes scouts get deeper into the weeds of the draft class in search of that stolen Mercedes that hasn’t been chopped up yet. To do that you need time, which is something Tampa scouts have had plenty of since BriseBois has a habit of dealing his first- and second-round chips by the trade deadline or sooner.
What that doesn’t guarantee, however, is a squat-hold pattern in which the Lightning avoid draft-day trade activity. Trading up or down has been a Tampa trait of nearly every draft weekend since BriseBois took over, but part of that process can mean including big names with more than just basic NHL reputations.
Such was the case in 2019 when the Lightning moved center J.T. Miller to the Vancouver Canucks for a first-rounder and change on Day 2. Two years later, sparkplug winger Tyler Johnson was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks, albeit a few days after the draft. Depth winger Ross Colton in 2023 was the next to change zip codes around the draft, as BriseBois received a high second-rounder (37th overall) from the Colorado Avalanche and used it to draft versatile QMJHL winger Ethan Gauthier.
This year proved no different, as two everyday Bolts were dealt in separate trades, although one was as much of a blockbuster as the other was of the housekeeping variety. The first to go was top-pairing defender Mikhail Sergachev to The Utah Hockey Club while coming back were Swiss puck-mover J.J. Moser and center prospect Conor Geekie, with the latter piece essentially a substitute for the oft-included first-round selection (Geekie went 11th overall in 2022).
The other trade of note saw bruising winger Tanner Jeannot head to the Los Angeles Kings for a 2025 second-rounder and a 2024 fourth that the Bolts used on QMJHL import rearguard Jan Golicic.
Additional Notes
-The New York Islanders selected sniper Cole Eiserman at 20th overall with Tampa’s 2024 first-round pick that they acquired last May from the Chicago Blackhawks, who previously received the pick from Tampa as part of the Brandon Hagel trade.
-The San Jose Sharks took puck-rushing defenseman Leo Sahlin-Wallenius with Tampa Bay’s 2024 second-round pick (52nd overall). The Lightning had previously included this pick to acquire physical winger Tanner Jeannot in the 2023 deadline mega-deal with the Nashville Predators, who on June 25 would package the selection with winger prospect Jesse Kiiskinen to the Detroit Red Wings for defense prospect Andrew Gibson. Detroit on that same day would send the pick and pricey veteran defenseman Jake Walman to San Jose for future considerations.
-The New Jersey Devils grabbed abrasive Finnish winger Kasper Pikkarainen with the Lightning’s 2024 third-round pick (85th overall), which was initially shipped by Tampa Bay to San Jose for veteran winger Anthony Duclair. The Sharks then sent the pick and their 2025 sixth-rounder to the Devils to move up from 85 to 82 and select power forward Carson Wetsch.
-The Predators drafted QMJHL goalie Jakub Milota with the 2024 fourth-round pick (99th overall) they acquired from Tampa Bay at the 2023 draft when the Lightning drafted playmaking winger Jayson Shaugabay at 115th overall. The pick originally belonged to Chicago, which packaged it to Tampa in the Hagel trade.
-The Ottawa Senators selected overage center Blake Montgomery with the Lightning’s 2024 fourth-round pick (117th overall), which was part of the Nick Paul trade from the 2022 trade deadline
-Tampa Bay drafted CHL import defenseman Jan Golicic, a Slovenian, with the 2024 fourth-round pick (118th overall) it received from the Los Angeles Kings in a draft-day trade for Jeannot. Also headed the Lightning’s way was the Kings’ 2025 second-round pick. This almost closes the book on the highly-criticized Jeannot trade, which now reads Jeannot from Nashville to Tampa Bay for unsigned defenseman Cal Foote, and
-The Lightning used the 2024 fifth-round pick they secured from Nashville (in their May 21 re-acquisition of defenseman Ryan McDonagh) to select Minnetonka winger Hagen Burrows at 128th overall. Tampa sent a 2025 second-rounder and a 2024 seventh the other way, the latter of which was used by the Predators to select double-overage playmaking center Erik Pahlsson at 213th overall. The selection used by Tampa to draft Burrows originally belonged to the Edmonton Oilers, who sent it to Nashville at the 2023 trade deadline in the Mattias Ekholm trade.
-Tampa took overage power forward Joe Connor with the 2024 seventh-round pick (195th overall) it received from Chicago in the 2023 draft-day trade that sent veteran winger Corey Perry to the Blackhawks.
-The Lightning took overage Swedish winger Noah Steen with the 2024 seventh-round pick (1999) they secured from Utah as part of the Mikhail Sergachev trade on June 29. The final tally now reads Sergachev to Utah for two-way defenseman J.J. Moser, top center prospect Conor Geekie, and Steen.
-Tampa drafted double-overage WHL goalie Harrison Meneghin at 206th overall with the 2024 seventh-round pick it received last year from the Minnesota Wild for veteran winger Pat Maroon and minor-leaguer Maxim Cajkovic.
MORE: 2023-24 NHL Farm System Rankings and Assessments (Pre-Draft)
Draft picks
Assessment: Below average
Film study has been generally kind to Lightning prospects throughout the development process, so it’s hard to ding them on certain picks when you can see what they saw in each and every player selected. Of course, this doesn’t guarantee an NHL cup of coffee let alone a long career at the highest level. But there haven’t been many disappointments in terms of kids flat-out failing, even if grading this particular class has to be done on a scale relative to actual NHL projectability and how many games they’ll average three or four years from now.
This year marked the second time in the last four drafts that the headliner of Tampa’s class would come from outside the first two rounds. Gatineau defenseman Jan Golicic (118th overall) was viewed as a potential middle-round option since he went 44th overall in the 2023 CHL Import Draft, but his path to the NHL shouldn’t be as arduous as the average fourth-rounder since the Bolts give most of their prospects a long leash and that Golicic himself is steady, physical, and smart enough to make it to the show on his talents alone. Granted, the 6-foot-6 Slovenian plays a rather bland game on the puck and can be pigeon-holed into the defensive defenseman category without much of an argument from anyone within the organization (the Olympiques have y. But Golicic’s nasty side coupled with his poise and clean first pass under intense forecheck pressure should endear him to coaches and player development staff at higher levels.
Hagen Burrows at 128th overall is a solid value pick for a winger who can anticipate, initiate, and create all in one shift. The fact that he was drafted almost a half-round later than high-maintenance Minnetonka teammate Jayvon Moore was borderline criminal considering Burrows was simply the better winger and also committed to playing this season for the defending champion Denver Pioneers while Moore needed a full USHL season. Nonetheless, the Lightning have shown a penchant for high-schoolers in recent years and Burrows was one of the best in the country last season.
Any questions surrounding Tampa’s draft strategy should have been answered by the middle of the fifth round, where the Bolts took undersized dual-threat center Joona Saarelainen at 149th overall. Ranked in the top 50 among European skaters by NHL Central Scouting, the 5-foot-9 pivot is a tough customer who will go shoulder-to-shoulder with bigger opponents when he isn’t carving up defenses in open ice. This particular pick satisfies the organization’s need for centers, but disregarding Saarelainen’s size limitation makes this a best-player-available selection as well.
Gritty two-way pivot Kaden Pitre from the OHL’s Flint Firebirds is another forward who classifies more as the project type, although he doesn’t appeal to you because of his size. This may partly explain why the Lightning took him early in the sixth round at 181st overall, as he made a name for himself as a utility player on a good team who rarely looked overmatched against the opposition’s deadlier lines, especially on the penalty kill. Pitre has low-key attributes that will go unnoticed in the box score and even deeper analytic assessments, such as his stick-lifting ability, lane coverage, and passes on the backhand. He’s an average skater with a wide base which helps him keep his balance and protect the puck, especially when killing clock or delaying for a line change to finish.
An obsession with overagers has been a draft-weekend hallmark of Tampa’s for over a decade and all three of their seventh-round picks were either in their second or third looks at the draft. The first was USHL-trained winger Joe Connor, a tough out who was a fixture on Muskegon’s productive second line that contributed to the Lumberjacks reaching the Clark Cup semifinals, where Connor again proved his worth. Classically undersized at 5-foot-10 and 173 pounds, the New Hampshire native and Northeastern commit was able to stand up to physical challenges while making plays simultaneously, which should serve him well as a Husly freshman in 2024-25. Although I would have liked to see the Bolts take an even bigger gamble on a skilled winger with big-game acumen like Alexander Zetterberg (who went undrafted) or a pain in the neck such as physical SKA-1946 center Matvei Korotky (211th overall to St. Louis), Connor certainly deserved credit for some of the points heralded linemate Matvei Gridin recorded.
Another overage winger to don the blue and white on draft day was 2004-born Norwegian Noah Steen, who played at the world junior tournament in addition to starring for Mora IK’s J20 squad before earning a promotion to the adult-age Allsvenskan and tying for second on the squad with 14 goals in 40 games (against only three assists). Built solidly and willing to use his athleticism both on and away from the puck, Steen was signed by Orebro in the SHL for the 2024-25 season and receives a regular shift on the fourth line. But the decision to add a third winger over quality Lightning-like centers such as Erik Pahlsson (213th overall) and Christian Humphreys (215th) is open for criticism when you consider the aforementioned shortage within the pipeline.
The most puzzling development from Tampa’s draft table, however, was opting to wait until the middle of the seventh round to address its critical shortage of goalie prospects. Limited in bodies and needing a boost in the wake of 2019 third-rounder Hugo Alnefelt stagnating in the AHL, the Lightning used only one of their seven picks on a goalie — WHL double-overager Harrison Meneghin, who served as the No. 1 for the Lethbridge Hurricanes and was heroic in a short series loss to Swift Current but has since been moved to the Medicine Hat Tigers (who as of today are using a three-headed monster). Not only was there no footage of a post-draft press conference with first-year scouting director John Rosso, but the Tampa Bay Lightning official website only posted a press release listing the picks made but without comments or thoughts from BriseBois and Rosso.
MORE: 2024 Draft: Round 1 Pick-by-Pick Analysis and Grades