2025 Draft: Round 1 Live Blog/Grades
Pick-by-pick analysis of the entire first round. I'm trying to keep an open mind.
NASHVILLE (The Draft Analyst) — The night of nights is upon us, with the City of Angels playing host with a new-and-improved (supposedly) draft setup that kissed goodbye to scout tables and sleep deprivation and waved hello to operations staffs getting more than two hours of sleep in between Days 1 and 2. Speaking of Day 2, those in the Eastern and Central time zones will actually be able complete an entire morning workout, walk the dog, and then gamble your life savings away on Bet MGM or Draft Kings while crushing Kettle One and tonics, all before the first pick of the second round is announced. What’s that you say? More sleep? Weekend boozing? White space on the Outlook calendar? No kidding. I’m liking this decentralized thing already.
There’s more to the story. We have an actual draft to ingest, and after Erie Otters’ blueliner Matthew Schaefer goes first overall (speaking of Bet MGM), all wagers should be off. For starters, I don’t think the average fan realizes how much it bothers ex-NHL players-turned-general managers to buckle under the weight of public pressure and stick with the mock draft narratives. In 2018, Barrett Hayton snuck into the top five. Twelve months later, the Blackhawks made Kirby Dach the No. 3 pick. Then we have the former Arizona Coyotes and Montreal Canadiens passing on Matvei Michkov for Plain-Jane defensemen. Last year, Beckett Sennecke went third overall.
There will be fireworks. Expect the unexpected. Embrace the chaos.
Helpful Links
NHL Draft Order (Rounds 1-7) NHL Trade Tracker NHL Central Scouting Final Rankings Sugo di Pomodoro recipe (from a famous Englishman) Top 100 Prospect Profiles (NHL Central Scouting Release)
Picks and Grades
New York Islanders: Matthew Schaefer, LHD (Erie Otters, OHL)
Grade: A — Schaefer is supposed to be a savior. We heard the same about Rasmus Dahlin, Aaron Ekblad, and so on, but Schaefer’s cut from a different cloth. The Islanders shouldn’t overthink it and play him beyond opening night, even if it’s on the bottom pairing as a No. 6. I know I keep repeating myself, but he truly had a perfect draft season up until the injury at the WJC and his Hlinka was the best performance by any defense prospect I watched in the 11 years of covering it. Islanders made the right call, even if there’s a good chance a forward taken after him will have a “better career”.
San Jose Sharks: Michael Misa, C (Saginaw Spirit, OHL)
Grade: A — Misa is the best goal scorer in the class by a wide margin and the Sharks have the playmakers at both center, wing, and on defense to exploit the seam and cash in on his elite shot. The talk about him wanting to play center isn’t problematic, but I guess they’ll cross that bridge when they get there. Nonetheless, someone’s going to have to shift to wing eventually, even if Misa can theoretically earn the 3C out of camp, followed by Macklin Celebrini up top and Will Smith in between. But San Jose GM Mike Grier said around the lottery that he envisions Smith as a center and that playing the wing was a decision simply to keep him in a lineup with veteran pivots anywhere.
Chicago Blackhawks: Anton Frondell, C (Djurgardens, Allsvenskan)
Grade: A — My impression of Frondell is that he’s the best all-around forward in the draft. He’s definitely among the elite on the defensive side, and you can’t question the offensive ceiling of a kid who led the Norra Division in points-per-game average in his draft-1 and broke the Allvenskan under-18 scoring rate a season later. As for the Chicago, they certainly do NOT need another center, but Frondell set that aforementioned mark while playing third-line wing all season for Djurgardens. I like the idea of putting Frondell and Oliver Moore on the same line AND pairing them for the penalty kill.
Utah Mahmuds: Caleb Desnoyers, C (Moncton Wildcats, QMJHL)
Grade: B+ — I got the feeling that this pick was either going to be Radim Mrtka to address the holes on right-shot defense, or Utah would go with the center to replace Conor Geekie (who was traded). It looks like the Mahmuds played it safe and went for need with Desnoyers, who at fourth overall isn’t the best player available by any stretch, but was the top performer in the entire QMJHL this season, if that sort fo thing means anything to you. Armstrong is the world heavyweight champion of either busting the board or going strongly against the consensus. Wins the lottery and takes Desnoyers. No fucks given.
Nashville Predators: Brady Martin, C (Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds, OHL)
Grade: A- — I don’t know how I feel about the fact that Nashville’s reward for producing the worst season in franchise history (all things considered) is Brady Martin. I will say this, the thought of 2024 first-rounder Yegor Surin and Martin in the same lineup should not be well received by players in the Western Conference who don’t like to get hit. If Martin likes farming, he’s going to absolutely love Tennessee.
Philadelphia Flyers: Porter Martone, RW (Brampton Steelheads, OHL)
Grade: A- — I had Martone as my No. 4 and only he and Hagens were remaining as far as my early BPAs, but the slight ding on the grade is from the overwhelming number of wingers the Flyers already in their system. The competition just got more intense, but I think Martone is a throwback who gives Philly the size component they lost by trading Cutter Gauthier and bypassed last June by taking Jett Luchanko. The fan base is going to fall in love with him, not only because he’s a tough Italian, but because he wears his heart on his sleeve and is a consistent power-play contributor.
Boston Bruins: James Hagens, C (Boston College, HE)
Grade: A — Local boy from Long Island makes good in Boston. How’s that for a headline? You know the residents of Brookline won’t be too happy when Hagens is parking in Resident Only with an Islanders cap under the back windshield, but get over it, I say. Kidding aside, this has the makings of a beautiful marriage as long as Hagens dusts off the slight injustice of getting passed over by only a few spots and keeps with is playmaking and ingenuity. And credit to Don Sweeney and his scouts, for real. They obviously knew Causeway Street would have exploded if they passed on Hagens for another toolsy big boy. And like a bad explosion, like that one night at The Fours in ‘79 with the bum in pink wheelchair.
Seattle Kraken: Jake O’Brien, C (Brantford Bulldogs, OHL)
Grade: B+ — This is a BPA pick by a mile, as the Kraken have drafted mostly elite centers in Round 1 since 2021 — Matt Beniers, Shane Wright, Berkly Catton, and now O’Brien. I don’t think this was analyticallly-driven as O’Brien was a bit of a power-play merchant who didn’t have as many primary 5-on-5 dimes as the average top-tier pivot from this year’s class. Still, I had him at 10th overall so the talent level and projectability both make sense, but the fit is what I would be concerned with. Only so much puck to go around, although it’s still fun to envision O’Brien feeding look-offs into Jani Nyman’s wheelhouse, which sounds weird and pervy if you didn’t understand hockey lingo. Anyway, I thought Radim Mrtka would be the pick.
Buffalo Sabres: Radim Mrtka, RHD (Seattle Thunderbirds, WHL)
Grade: A — The Sabres on the ice have graduated beyond shuffling and are headlong into full-blown upheaval, and I like it. This was going to be a defenseman regardless of the J.J. Peterka drama, but I thought it would be Kashawn Aitcheson. Mrtka has the higher IQ and is the better positional defender, although the intimidation factor, which the Sabres need, isn’t as pronounced. Still, when Mrtka arrived with the T-Birds at midseason, the dynamic of the entire blue line changed. He’s a big boy who can eat big minutes, with play-killing one of his best attribute.
Anaheim Ducks: Roger McQueen, C (Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL)
Grade: B+ — The top 10 was mostly perennial doormats for the umpteenth draft so there was always a good chance a team with prospect depth for days would be willing to shoot for the stars and take this year’s biggest wild card. I thought the Ducks would be in the market for a center after looking at their meh depth within the pipeline. But not necessarily for McQueen, who can play like a sublime talent in a 6-foot-5 frame yet should remain an injury risk until he can play a full season. I predicted him as an option, nonetheless, mostly based on Anaheim’s behavior at the draft since GM Pat Verbeek took over.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Benjamin Kindel, C (Calgary Hitmen, WHL)
Grade: B- — Never change, Kyle. Never, ever change.
Kyle Dubas has always loved these types — small, feisty, a go-getter. Kindel had a great year and was a heartbeat kind of a player. He looked good in one form or another nearly every game, mostly by making things happen with or without the puck. You can say his style can be infectuous, which probably fits into Dubas’ desire for the Penguins to be an aggressive, puck-possion team where dominating the walls are just as important. Kindel can do this with his smarts and speed, but the WHL ain’t the AHL and had some of his worst shifts against the better WHL teams with big defenders. I would have gone for size over quickness, because the IQ requirement was there for a bunch or remaining pivots.
Philadelphia Flyers (NYR-PIT): Jack Nesbitt, C (Windsor Spitfires, OHL)
Grade: C — The Flyers traded up 10 spots with Pittsburgh and it cost them the 22nd and 31st picks to make it happen. Absolute steal from Kyle Dubas and completely desperate by the Flyers. Although I mocked Nesbitt to the Rangers at 12 before they moved the pick to Pittsburgh, I felt that the Rangers were painted in a corner because due to a glaring need withn the system. I have been a fan of Nesbitt’s after not warming up to him, as he’s a big, smooth playmaking center who carried his team on many nights despite being younger. Still, it’s too steep of a price to pay for a center who is only slightly better than what Jack Berglund was a year ago.
Detroit Red Wings: Carter Bear, LW (Everett Silvertips, WHL)
Grade: A — The Wings needed wings, even after winging it and drafting a wing in the first round last year. Bear, my No. 5-ranked prospect, was both BPA and adds firepower to the arsenal along the flanks, but we didn’t get a chance to see him late in the season after his Achilles’ was severed by a runaway skate blade. He is fast, aggressive, and totally in your grill, or up your ass, if you’re into the whole overbearing parent thing. No, for real, he was a menace to WHL defensemen. He caused turnover after turnover, eventually joining the 40-40 club before getting hurt.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Jackson Smith, LHD (Tri-City Americans, WHL)
Grade: B+ — I get why the Blue Jackets went for the big, mobile defenseman and there was enough evidence from Smith — the skating, the size, the hitting — to consider him a potential star. Or maybe he’s a potential Philip Broberg, who in retrospect is about as good as a middle-of-the-first-round prospect should be at 24 years of age. This isn’t a bad pick to say the least, with the overcrowded left side being the only thing to nitpick. Smith has to tone it down a bit with the turnovers and IQ-related stuff, nonetheless, at least if he wants to not only hang among the aforementioned depth, but leapfrog them as well.
Vancover Canucks: Braeden Cootes, C (Seattle Thunderbirds, WHL)
Grade: A- — My goodness, is Cootes not Swedish? Maybe it was required at the combine for all Canucks’ interviewees to bring DNA test results and confirm any potential Nordic bloodline. Anyway, this is a great pick for a team that needed this type of center. Personally, I would have gone with Cole Reschny from nearby Victoria, but I wrote in the draft report that it was either going to be Cootes, Reschny, or Nesbitt, simply because at least two were expected to drop into the teens but not stay there long. I loved his effort and how he helped drive possession for an undermanned team. The low ranking (33rd overall) was from seeing too many of his type from the WHL who never hit, plus the lack of an elite standalone skill hurts his chances. A slight reach, but completely justified.
New York Islanders (via MTL-CGY): Viktor Eklund, RW (Djurgardens, Allsvenskan)
Grade: A — I mocked Eklund outside the lottery so the Spidey Sense from last summer was on point. Not saying that in a bad way, as the pick is pure BPA and the Islanders probably felt comfortable catching him from falling any further, especially after getting plenty from Cole Eiserman’s draft+1 after he fell into the 20s last year. New York’s pipeline just got more competitive.
New York Islanders (via MTL): Kashawn Aitcheson, LHD (Barrie Colts, OHL)
Grade: A —Arguably the best blueliner still on the board—and a mean one at that. Today’s mini-blockbuster sends Noah Dobson to Montreal in exchange for Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson, a deal that’s even on paper, though the latter two still have much to prove. Don’t be shocked if Aitcheson makes a serious push out of camp—he’s got the size, strength, and wheels, though his appetite for risk could hold him back.
Calgary Flames (via NJD): Cole Reschny, C (Victoria Royals, WHL)
Grade: A — Great pick. I ranked him 18th, he satifies need and was the best center available. Reschny had one of the higher assist rates away from the power play was a team MVP for Victoria. The size thing shouldn’t be a thing because Reschny plays with hunger and will win battles by simply being more driven. This is an acceptable return considering the pick was part of the Jacob Markstrom trade.
St. Louis Blues: Justin Carbonneau, RW (Blainville-Boisbriand, QMJHL)
Grade: A — I said it once and I’ll say it again — I think Carbonneau has all the tools to be the best player to come out of this draft. There really wasn’t much to nitpick when a right winger with his frame is galloping down the middle and the poor goalie knows he’s in for it. I also like the Blues tapping in the QMJHL yet again and finding a potential linemate for Zach Bolduc, maybe. For my money, I’d say Carbonneau’s another Jimmy Snuggerud.
Columbus Blue Jackets (via MIN): Pyotr Andreyeanov, GK (Krasnaya Armiya, MHL)
Grade: A — This isn’t a reach. We’re just accustomed to teams avoiding goalies like the plague when it comes to the first round. And here’s the thing — Andreyonov is the best goalie in this class….by…a…lot. I don’t wants to hear any that Ravensbergen and Ivankovic shit. The Russian kid is better. End of story. Personally, I’d pay money as early as tomorrow to see Andreyonov clobber pucks off the glass like a possessed Ron Hextall with Slayer blasting in his ears. This goalie is something to watch — animated and drug-lord competitive. “Get off my corner, Marlo.” is basically how the Avon Barksdale of this year’s goalie class plays on a nightly basis. Mike Lange would have loved this guy.
Nashville Predators (via OTT): Cameron Reid, LHD (Kitchener Rangers, OHL)
Grade: A — Love the thinking here, as Reid was the best remaining left-shot defender and it only cost the Preds a high third-rounder to jump up two spots and leave nothing to chance. This is how you move up, in my opinion, as the scouts got their blueliner who was likely atop most remaining lists at the position. Reid is as stedy as they come. A great tape-to-tape passer and breakout option. I had him ranked 21st but I’m actually surprised he lasted this long.
Pittsburgh Penguins (via COL-PHI): Bill Zonnon, C (Rouyn-Noranda Hiskies, QMJHL)
Grade: A- — Zonnon is a very likeable center who brings the required energy once he hops over the boards. This measureable is in line with the Kindel selection earlier in Round 1, so we can continue with these recent Penguin acquisitions who fit a specific mold. Perhaps another way to look at Zonnon is that he’s closer in physcial maturity and offensive play to center prospect Vasily Ponomaryov, who went back to Russia, and is the pivot to replace Brayden Yager, whom Dubas traded to Winnipeg last year for Rutger McGroarrrrrrrrrty
Ottawa Senators (via TB-NSH): Logan Hensler, RHD (Wisconsin Badgers, Big-10)
Grade: A- — I was in Hensler’s corner from wire to wire, so trading down only two spots for the best righty defender available gets a huge pat on the back. I love Cameron Reid, but you’re not going to convince me that as of tomorrow, he’ll be superior to Hensler and the kid the Senators are hoping to grab tomorrow at 67. As for Hensler himself, he had a bit of an up-and-down freshman season in college, but he’ll probably learn from it and be a commanding force within two years. He also gives the Ottawa pipeline more balance between right and left defensemen.
Pittsburgh Penguins (via LAK): Will Horcoff, C (Michigan Wolverines, Big-10)
Grade: B — The Penguins were green-lighted to package the 31st pick (acquired earlier from Philadelphia) and the 59th to the Kings for 24th overall, which now on the surface seems like a well-planned maneuver. Horcoff did wonders for his stock by joining the Wolverines at midseason and immediately helping their limp power play with his passing, puck control, and puck protection. He also has a physical side to match the big frame, and those analytics people probably liked the scoring-chance involvement (which unfortunately is a lot better than his scoring-chance scoring. I had him ranked 49th because of that very reason. I know, it’s a little petty.
Chicago Blackhawks (via TOR): Vaclav Nestrasil, RW (Muskegon Lumberjacks, USHL)
Grade: A- — Nice work by Chicago scouts, who in a way are rewarding Nestrasil for making all those drives from Chicago to Muskegon worth it. The Lumberjacks were the USHL champions, so they had plenty of talent on the squad at every position. But I honestly don’t think there were many nights where Nestrasil was no worse than the third or fourth best forward. His size advanatge was pronounced in a league like the USHL, but I don’t think it’s going to change when he gets to college
Nashville Predators (via VGK): Ryker Lee, RW (Madison Capitols, USHL)
Grade: A — I’m going up to the penthouse suite for this one, as Lee is one of my favorite prospects in the draft. As skilled a winger as you’ll find from North America, and that says something in this forward-heavy Day 1. I know I talked about him plenty, as have many others, but he’s near the top of my “Gonna Be Great, Just Wait” list. I actually couldn’t decide on whether I liked his playmaking more than his stickhandling. If you’re into the art of puck control, watch Lee.
Washington Capitals: Lynden Lakovic, LW (Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL)
Grade: A — I mean, they couldn’t have, could they? Tell me this isn’t real — that the team with the gelato assortment of the century at either wing just added another award-winning flavor. Lakovic was ranked ninth in my list because I think he has some of the silkiest mitts you’ll find in this class. He won all sorts of team awards and apparently is loved in the community (not THAT community), so the Caps might be thinking they’re getting the best person available as well. This is a win-win coming off a division title.
Winnipeg Jets: Sascha Boumedienne, LHD (Boston University, HE)
Grade: A- — I had a strong feeling the Jets were going to add to the blue line but instead leaned toward prioritizing defense over offense. Boumedienne already gives you a bit of everything — skating, 1-on-1 coverage, puck-rushing — but like Jets’ righty prospect Elias Salomonsson, he is probably just scratching the surface on what he could become if or when he marries them all together. Shit. Wait a minute. Boumedienne AND Salomonsson? Whose kid is next? Stanislav Gron? A goddamn Albany reunion is what this smells like.
Chicago Blackhawks: Mason West, C (Edina Hornets, HS-MN)
Grade: B+ — West blew me away when I watched him lead those cake-eaters (Kidding!) to another championship at state, and that was two seasons ago. We all had been waiting for him to choose between football and hocey, which is amazing to even type, let along actually star in two sports at one of the best public best high schools in the country. They had to trade up to make his Chicago dream a reality, but the cost of two second-rounders wasn’t too high in my book.
San Jose Sharks (via DAL): Joshua Ravensbergen, GK (Prince George, WHL)
Grade: B- — I didn’t think Ravensbergen had a good season outside of a two-week sample, but I also knew how San Jose was going to value the position earlier this year than later. The Sharks have no choice but to keep stockpiling goalies, which for whatever reasons has been problematic at both the NHL and AHL levels for years. But Ravensbergen in the first round? My guess is they probably liked the size more than they liked the actual in-game performance, which is always fair with these young goalies.
Los Angeles (via EDM-PHI-PIT): Henry Brzustewicz, RHD (London Knights, OHL)
Grade: A- — There isn’t as much upward activity within the Los Angeles pipeline as we had predicted and shit has been reversing at several positions. I thought the Kings would take of the center requirement first, then the defense later on. Still, Henry B. is a gem, a real throwback two-way defender who teams like London consider a no-brainer for their inner circle. Everything should translate to the next level.
Calgary Flames (via FLA): Cullen Potter, C/W (Arizona State Sun Devils, NCHC)
Grade: A — Home run, even if it’s just the video game kind for now. Calgary leaves Day 1 with Reschny and Potter. That’s your headline. Those are two top-20-caliber picks in my book, and they often produce offense all by themselves, as in literally. Pretty clear that Calgary’s recent strategy is to up the ante on pure puck skill, and boy wouldn’t it be great if every team collectively thought this way for just one draft? You have to think Calgary scouts left for the hotel grinning ear to ear.
Really glad I have your draft analysis. If I have to hear this guy on NHL network say “oh he’s gonna be a depth defenseman” again, I’m gonna lose my mind.